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珠江钢琴(002678)三季报点评:业绩持续改善 定增完成布局未来转型

申萬宏源研究 ·  Oct 24, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company disclosed the 2017 three-quarter report: 2017Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 1,336 billion yuan, an increase of 14.6% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 128 million yuan, an increase of 11.2% over the previous year, which is basically in line with our expectations; the non-net profit withheld by the mother was 127 million yuan, an increase of 19.1% over the previous year. Among them, 17Q3 achieved revenue of 490 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 13.5% over the previous year, net profit of 366.675 million yuan, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year, and net operating cash flow of 45.597 million yuan, an increase of 47.5% over the previous year. The company predicts that net profit for the full year of 2017 will increase by 0%-30% year-on-year. The main business structure has been optimized, the main piano business model with R & D+production+sales, and the performance elasticity of the acquisition of Schimmel has improved. The company's revenue and profit performance were steady, and Germany's Schimmel business segment performed well and the business structure was optimized. At the same time, the digital musical instrument and culture industry became a revenue growth point. The company's net profit growth rate in Q3 in a single quarter increased by 2.6 pct compared to Q2, and performance continued to improve. The piano product business accounts for about 90%. As the product structure is upgraded, the share of high-end pianos has increased. The gross margin of the 17Q1-Q3 was 32.8%, up 1.7pct from the previous year, and the gross margin increased steadily. Sales expenses continued to be invested, with a year-on-year increase of 31.26%, and the marketing of its own brand and the German Schimmel brand was strong. In recent years, the global production of traditional pianos has basically stabilized at around 500,000, and demand for high-end pianos has shown a growing trend. Product: The company has built a brand system with strong international competitiveness in all grades of high, medium and popular, comprehensively promoted the Schimmel project, formed a new Schimmel domestic marketing network, and deepened the integration of upstream and downstream industrial chains to enhance the influence of Pearl River pianos. Sales: The company's main business developed well during the reporting period. The company's piano production and sales volume were stable, and the product structure was continuously optimized. Channel: The company has established a piano business model of R & D+production+sales, and cooperates with dealers. There are more than 360 and 230 domestic sales and service outlets respectively, up from the end of 2016; the international market is centered around Asia, Europe and America, with more than 200 sales and service outlets, covering more than 100 countries and regions; the domestic market share has reached more than 35%, and the global market rate has reached more than 25%. The company's fixed growth was successfully completed, the main business continued to gain strength, and cultural industry projects were progressing steadily. The company issued 888.618 million shares at 1230 yuan/share, raising a total capital of 1,093 billion yuan. The funds raised will be used for the Guangzhou Cultural Industry Innovation and Entrepreneurship Incubation Park project, the Zengcheng National Cultural Industry Base Project (Phase II), the National Culture and Art Education Center construction project, the Pearl River Musical Instrument Cloud Service Platform construction project, and supplementary liquidity. Through fund-raising, the company will further strengthen its main business, expand the cultural service industry, and accelerate its transformation and upgrading to advanced manufacturing and cultural services. After issuance, the Guangzhou State-owned Assets Administration Commission held 782 million shares and remains the controlling shareholder of the company. As a key target for Guangzhou's state-owned enterprise reform, the company is expected to enjoy policy dividends, and can later be used as a platform for integrating relevant resources. Digital pianos enrich its main business, and Amoeson plans to increase its strength by listing on the new third board. The company mainly develops digital piano business through its holding subsidiary Amoeson, and has technical cooperation with famous Japanese and Italian digital musical instrument companies. The product line covers digital pianos (grand piano, upright piano), MIDI keyboards, electric guitars, etc., and cooperates with Zhujiang Hainuo to develop a new 6+1 music classroom to explore the Internet digital piano model. In the future, Amoeson will speed up the securitization process. After the application is listed on the New Third Board, it will expand development through two fund-raising projects for digital piano keyboards and portable digital pianos. Investment in art education has maintained rapid growth, and the brand system has been promoted throughout the country. Through industrial operations and capital operations, the company accelerates the development of the art education industry and promotes network construction. The Jinan Central Store and Foshan Flagship Store have already opened, and the Pearl River Piano Beijing Art House is about to be built. Establish a cultural and artistic company to create an integrated ecosystem of musical instruments, education, online and offline channels, and Internet platforms. The cultural media industry is actively exploring and exploring new bright spots in the cultural industry. The company mainly develops film and television business through the Zhuguang Media Company, develops media business through Eight Doumi, and initiated the establishment of a media fund. In the future, the company will continue to improve the governance structure of the media business, give full play to the role of media fund platforms, and enhance the profitability of the cultural sector. The product structure continues to be optimized, high-end piano brands have set sail, independent brands are accumulating, and the high-end European brand Schimmel has been acquired to improve the brand gradient. Focusing on the Internet+ art education and value service system, art education will advance broadly in the future. Where Guangzhou's state-owned assets reform is scarce, a fixed increase has been completed to strengthen the transformation and upgrading of cultural services. The company currently has a market value of 12.3 billion yuan. We maintain the company's EPS from 17-19 to 0.17 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.23 yuan. The current stock price (11.87 yuan) corresponds to 2017-2019 PE of 70, 62 times and 52 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the development direction of the company's long-term comprehensive industrial layout of high-end musical instrument manufacturing, music education, cultural finance, and media industries, and maintain an increase in holdings.

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