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厚普股份(300471)三季报点评:前三季度业绩不佳 静待能源工程发力

東興證券 ·  Oct 27, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The company announced the report for the third quarter of 2017. From January to September 2017, the company achieved operating income of 689 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.98%; net profit of 6.5 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.21%; in the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 226 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.42%; and realized net profit of 31.89 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.41%. The performance of the third quarter suffered a setback, and the traditional main business continued to be under pressure. The company achieved net profit of only 31.89 million yuan in the third quarter, a sharp decline of nearly 90%, and gross margin of 30.09% (year-on-year -11.21ppt). Overall operating conditions in the first three quarters were poor. The main reason for our judgment is that the company's traditional sales of gas station equipment have not returned to a good level. Benefiting from the widening oil and gas price spread, the economy of natural gas for vehicles has rebounded. The production of LNG heavy trucks in September was 11,682, a record high, accounting for 11.6% of heavy trucks. Short-term LNG gas station market expansion is limited. Competition has intensified due to the resumption of production by some companies, and the gross margin of the company's products has declined. In the long run, the increase in production and ownership of heavy LNG trucks will drive the construction of natural gas filling stations. As of September 30, the company's inventory was 309 million yuan, an increase of 160 million yuan compared to the end of 2016, indicating that the company's gas station equipment products and products issued continued to increase, in line with the trend of industry recovery. The gas station business is expected to grow significantly in 2018. The energy engineering business is gradually gaining strength, and major projects continue to advance. The company's forward-looking layout of the clean energy industry chain. The overall progress of various projects such as the “Shuifu to Zhaotong Gas Pipeline General Contract”, “10MW Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Project and Photovoltaic Power Generation System Design Contract”, and “Diqing Natural Gas Branch Pipeline Project EPC Contract” signed before July 2017 was good, but delays in some revenue confirmation and project repayment points put pressure on the third quarter performance. On August 28, the company announced that it signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Yongchuan District Government of Chongqing for a comprehensive utilization project of shale gas, involving a total investment scale of about 4 billion yuan. The company is focusing on promoting this major project recently. The implementation of the project will greatly enhance the company's performance and promote the high growth of the company's performance in 2018-2019. The Ministry of Land and Resources said in September that it would establish shale gas exploration sites in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, including the Yangtze River basins such as Chongqing, Sichuan, and Guizhou. The company has been doing business in Chongqing, Sichuan and other regions for a long time, and has excellent industrial resources. We believe that the size of the company's energy engineering business is expected to grow rapidly with the help of the Dongfeng of natural gas development, driving the company's development. Profit forecast and investment rating: From January to August 2017, China's natural gas consumption increased 17.8% year on year, and downstream demand increased markedly. The company's gas station business and clean energy engineering layout will benefit from the increase in natural gas consumption. Assuming that a major project is implemented in Yongchuan District, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 162 million yuan, 352 million yuan and 443 million yuan respectively in 2017-2019. EPS is 0.44 yuan, 0.95 yuan and 1.19 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 37.7X/17.4X/13.8X, maintaining the “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: Energy engineering confirmed revenue fell short of expectations, and the recovery in gas station orders fell short of expectations.

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