Recommended logic for investment points: 1) The downstream demand for the company's two core businesses is improving in both directions. As the company's production capacity expansion gradually reaches production in the next two years, the company's performance growth is highly certain; 2) the shipping business bottomed out in 2016, and tank demand picked up in 2017. With the continuous rise in raw material prices and production capacity expansion in 2018, the tank box business is expected to rise rapidly in volume and price; 3) the demand for refrigeration equipment continues to grow in the context of consumption upgrades. The volume and price of the tank business have risen sharply, and the product structure has improved: the prosperity of the shipping business has continued to decline since 2008. It bottomed out in 2016. The industry picked up in 2017, and demand improved. The company's tank products have been in short supply for a long time, and the capacity utilization rate exceeds 100%. At the same time, the price of stainless steel, an important raw material for tank boxes, increased in 2017 (tank boxes are based on the raw material price pricing model), and the proportion of special cases with higher gross margin increased to 30%. Combined with the expansion factors of tank production capacity in 2018 (production capacity will rise to the current level of 4,000 units/year to 7,300 units/year), the company's tank business has great potential to rise in volume and price. The demand side of refrigeration equipment continues to improve. The company has more than 30 years of experience in the design and production of quick-freezing equipment. In the context of consumption upgrades, people's lifestyles are changing, and demand for cold food and fast food has increased markedly. Although demand for pasta and aquatic products has declined downstream, demand for fast food products such as Zhou Heiyu and Zhouwei has clearly expanded. According to industry associations, the CAGR for quick-freezing equipment in the next few years will be above 20%. The company's refrigeration equipment production capacity is currently 400 units/year, which is expected to expand to 620 units/year in 2019. It is expected that, driven by the increase in downstream demand, the increase in production capacity will be fully absorbed, bringing flexibility to performance. Equity incentives were completed in 2017. The company completed its first equity incentive in April 2017. The restricted stock incentive was granted to 353 people, including members of the company's board of directors and core middle management and technical personnel, at a price of 15.91 yuan/share. Restricted stocks unlock performance assessment targets based on 2016 results, with growth ratios of not less than 10%, 20%, and 30% respectively from 2017 to 2019. Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the company's EPS in 2017-2019 to be 0.79 yuan, 1.08 yuan, and 1.42 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 37 times, 27 times, and 21 times, respectively (based on the closing price of 29.40 yuan on October 24, 2017). The company's two businesses are improving in both directions. As the production capacity of tank equipment has expanded, volume and price have risen sharply, and the company is a leader in quick-moving equipment, and downstream demand is growing steadily. Combined with the historical valuation situation of comparable companies and companies, we gave the company 36 times PE in 2018, corresponding to a target price of 38.88 yuan. For the first time, we gave it a “buy” rating. Risk warning: 1) risk of production capacity expansion falling short of expectations; 2) risk of downstream demand growth falling short of expectations; 3) risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices.
四方冷链(603339)调研报告:罐箱业务量价齐升 冷冻设备长期向好
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