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新研股份(300159)季报点评:民参军体量龙头 增长强劲潜力巨大

興業證券 ·  Oct 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key Investment Company released three quarterly reports: revenue of 564 million yuan, up 11.92% year on year; net profit to mother of 165 million, up 85.65% year on year; first three quarter results: revenue of 1,051 million yuan, up 37.41% year on year; net profit to mother of 257 million, up 139.4% year on year. Tomorrow, the aerospace business layout will be steady, and the performance growth channel will be determined. The company's traditional military business products mainly serve China's eight major aircraft mainframes, four major aero engine OEMs, eight major aerospace engine manufacturers, and the four major aerospace engine OEMs, and has formed strategic partnerships with seven OEMs. On this basis, the company is actively expanding the civil aircraft business, with a steady layout and great potential for growth. Performance growth is strong, and growth potential is huge. Currently, the deployment of aircraft mainframe equipment is accelerating; demand for space weapons and equipment has increased sharply. Tomorrow's Aerospace is the largest private enterprise in the field of aerospace equipment manufacturing, and it is also the enterprise with the largest military revenue and profit volume in the civilian military sector. The company combines the dual advantages of a sharp increase in downstream demand (military aerospace equipment+civil aviation manufacturing) with the rapid expansion of its own production capacity and professional layout, and is expected to maintain rapid growth in performance for the next 3 to 5 years. We predict that the company's 2017-2019 EPS will be 0.30/0.45/0.58, corresponding to a valuation of 40/27/21 times, and continue to give the company an “increase” rating. Risk warning: The agricultural machinery industry is showing a downward trend, and future development expectations are uncertain; domestic civil aircraft and international cooperative business certification cycles are long, upfront investment is large, and profit performance is lagging behind.

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