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云南旅游(002059)季报点评:主业持续承压 期待华侨城协同布局

廣發證券 ·  Oct 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Profit: The company's performance for the first three quarters fell by 40.8%, and the annual performance is expected to increase by 1.8%-49.7%. The company announced the results for the first three quarters of 17 years, with operating income of 8.2 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, net profit of 36.8 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.8%, net profit of 28.67 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.4%, and EPS of 0.05 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.8%. The performance range for the full year of '17 is expected to be between 68 million and 100 million yuan, with a corresponding year-on-year growth rate of 1.8% to 49.7%. The decline in performance in the first three quarters was mainly affected by the project cycle. The main reasons for the significant decline in the company's performance in the first three quarters compared to the same period last year were: 1. Jiangnan Garden had a high performance base last year due to multiple project settlements, but this year's performance declined markedly due to project cycles. 2. The performance of Yunlu Auto was relatively poor due to the impact of the market environment. The Mingfeng Neighborhood Project started sales in the third quarter and has now brought the company 338 million pre-paid housing payments. The company's annual performance is expected to increase steadily under the impetus of the real estate business. Financial expenses have increased dramatically, and the company's overall expense ratio has increased. The cost rate for the first three quarters was 20.4%, up 5.1 percentage points from the previous year. This is mainly due to a large increase in financial expenses and a year-on-year decrease in operating income. Among them, the financial expense ratio was 4.5%, up 2.5 percentage points year on year, mainly due to the increase in short-term loans of 350 million dollars in the current period, which led to an increase in financial expenses of 84.1%; the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increased 1.7 and 0.9 percentage points year on year, respectively. Outreach expansion is still anticipated. Focus on the subsequent entry of OCT to advance the resource integration process 1) In May of this year, World Expo Group, the majority shareholder of OCT's official holding company, clearly stated in the acquisition offer that the purpose of this acquisition was to “promote cooperation between central enterprises and key local industries and promote the development of Yunnan's cultural tourism industry to a higher level.” Yunnan Province is rich in tourism resources. After OCT enters the market, the company is expected to become a platform for integrating tourism resources in Yunnan Province. 2) Although the company's previous fixed growth plan was cancelled, the wholly-owned acquisition of Expo Wedding Culture Company on September 28 shows that the company's original intention to promote expansion of extension has not changed, and future extension expectations are still there. 3) The company announced on July 26 that it intends to participate in the establishment of the Yunnan Tourism Development Equity Tourism Investment Fund. The company has priority purchasing rights for the projects invested by the fund, which is expected to accelerate the integration of regional tourism resources. The stock business is stable, and the focus on extension remains. Maintaining the company's “prudent increase in holdings” rating, the company's 17-year performance is stable and flat. If previous orders for Jiangnan Garden can be settled within the next year, the 17-year performance is expected to be further consolidated. The company's future focus is mainly on the expected integration of regional tourism resources after OCT enters. In the long run, Yunnan Province is rich in tourism resources. As the only tourism listing platform in Yunnan Province under the State Assets Administration Commission, the company is worth looking forward to in terms of regional resource integration in the future. The company's EPS for 17-19 is expected to be 0.10/0.11/0.13 yuan, maintaining the “prudent increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: State-owned enterprise reform is uncertain, and progress in resource integration falls short of expectations

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