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辉丰股份(002496)点评:业绩高增长 农药回暖公司发展可期待

東北證券 ·  Oct 23, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The company achieved a total operating income of 8.939 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2017, an increase of 162.39% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 328 million yuan, an increase of 134.08% over the previous year. The third quarter achieved revenue of 2,890 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 96.49% over the previous year; net profit of the mother was 94.3927 million yuan, an increase of 163.10% over the previous year, an increase of 10.0% over the previous year. The company expects net profit for the whole year to be between 419-506 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of 140%-190%. The volume of petrochemical trade increased, and the performance growth in the third quarter was in line with expectations: the company's pesticide business grew steadily, and the petrochemical trading business continued to grow in volume in the third quarter, driving a significant increase in the company's performance. The company's comprehensive gross profit margin for the third quarter was 7.92%, up 0.1 percentage points from the second quarter. The company's period cost control was further optimized. Sales expenses increased 8.59% year over year, management expenses fell 3.14% year over year, and financial expenses increased 23.09% year over year, all far below the revenue growth rate. The pesticide industry is recovering steadily, and the leading advantage of differentiation is outstanding: global crop product prices fell to a low of nearly ten years in 2016. Currently, commodity agricultural products such as wheat, corn, and soybeans are showing a steady upward trend. Financial reports released one after another by international pesticide giants show that pesticide profitability levels have improved markedly. The domestic pesticide industry continues to be under high environmental pressure. Especially after entering the heating season, some regions have imposed production restrictions on pesticide companies involved in excessive VOCs emissions. The company's pesticide business follows a differentiated path. Its core products, misinamide, rank first in the world, and capryloyl bromobenzonitrile and fluconazole, rank first in China in production capacity. The company's environmental investment continues to be upgraded, and the level of environmental protection operation is leading in the industry. In the context of the steady recovery of the pesticide industry, the company will fully benefit as a differentiated leader. The new projects are progressing in an orderly manner, and ammonium sulphosate provides long-term development space: the company issues convertible bonds to raise 845 million yuan for the construction of new products such as 5,000 tons/year of ammonium phosphine, 2000 tons/year of methoxyconyl traps, and 1000 tons/year of anti-decarboxyl ester. Ammonium phosate has benefited from the gradual withdrawal of paraquat and the drug resistance problem of glyphosate. The future market space is vast. The company has built a new 5,000 ton ammonium phosate project with a high standard, providing room for the company's long-term development. In addition, the gradual commencement of production of various other new low-toxic and environmentally friendly pesticides will also contribute new profit growth points to the company. Profit forecast: The company's net profit for 2017-2019 is estimated to be 4.64/6.33/690 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 19/14/13 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: risk of falling product prices; risk of new business not progressing as expected

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