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云南旅游(002059)季报点评:三季报业绩下滑明显 预计房地产项目带动业绩增长

國金證券 ·  Oct 24, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Performance Overview In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 823 million yuan, a decrease of 16.89%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 37 million yuan, a decrease of 40.79%. Among them, the company achieved operating income of 304 million yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 16%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 018 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.94%. Performance analysis Both revenue and profit declined in the first three quarters, which was greatly affected by the project settlement cycle and market: the company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters fell by 16.89% and 40.79% respectively. The reason for the decline in the company's revenue and profit is that the subsidiaries Jiangnan Garden Co., Ltd. and Yunnan Tour Bus Co., Ltd. were affected by project settlement time and market. The net cash flow from operating activities was 126 million yuan/ +421.60%. The opening of the Mingfeng Neighborhood Project led to an increase in pre-paid housing payments. It is expected that the 2017 annual results will benefit from the opening of the Mingfeng Neighborhood Project to achieve positive growth in performance. Mingfeng Neighborhood obtained a pre-sale certificate in August, with a pre-sale area of 50046.53 square meters and an average price of 12,500 yuan/square meter. The company expects the 2017 performance range to be 68-100 million yuan, an increase of 1.8%-49.71%. The non-public offering plan was terminated, and the progress of the fund-raising project was not affected: the company originally planned to use fund-raising funds to build the Kunming Story Project, the Mingfeng Neighborhood Project, and the Happy Valley Project. The non-public offering plan was terminated in view of refinancing policies, regulations and regulatory requirements, but the fund-raising project was carried out according to the plan. 1) In June 2017, World Expo Group, the majority shareholder of the company, and Country Garden Yunnan Company signed a strategic alliance cooperation agreement to cooperate in tourism and cultural projects such as the upgrading of Yunnan Hotel and Kunming Hotel, the development of the Kunming World Expo New Area, and urban renewal. 2) Mingfeng Neighborhood obtained a pre-sale certificate, and the project was officially launched. 3) Yunnan World Expo Huanxigu Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary, acquired 100% of the shares of Yunnan World Expo Wedding Culture Company for 29.4621 million yuan, insisting on the layout of the wedding industry chain. The company's future focus is on project development and resource integration expectations after OCT settles in: 1) OCT strategy enters Dian, Yunnan's “culture+tourism+urbanization” strategy. Yunnan tourism will become a resource integration platform for OCT, and the Yunnan government will join forces with OCT and the five major central enterprises (China Development Bank, China Construction, China Railway, China Railway Construction, and China Metallurgical) to carry out urbanization construction and global tourism development in Yunnan Province. 2) Future tourism projects to be carried out by OCT will take into account the factors of competition among peers and inject them into the listed tourism companies in Yunnan. 3) The company's chairman has been replaced, and employee motivation expectations have increased. Profit forecasts and investment recommendations currently estimate the performance of 2017E/2018E/2019E at $0.73/0.80/82 million, an increase of 10%/8.6%/3%. The current stock price corresponds to PE 94/86/84 times, and EPS is 0.10/0.109/0.112 yuan. Due to the company's high valuation and performance being greatly affected by the settlement cycle, the progress of the project after OCT settled in fell short of expectations and was downgraded to a rating of increased holdings. Risk suggests that investment and development projects cannot be anticipated, tourism and cultural complexes and real estate projects have a long payback period, performance feedback is slow, and reforms from top to bottom have a lot of variability

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