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安信信托(600816)季报点评:三季度业绩表现靓丽 好于预期

海通證券 ·  Oct 15, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: The company's private holding background, and the operating mechanism is more flexible. Since 13 years, the company has returned to the main trust business, the scale of trusts has risen rapidly, and various rankings have risen rapidly. In 2015, the company adapted to the development situation of the industry, actively promoted business innovation and transformation, and strived to expand and strengthen active management. The company uses the “real stock and real debt” model, and the trust return rate remains leading in the industry. The target price is 17.40 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating. Incident; Anxin Trust achieved operating income of 4.197 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2017, an increase of 19% over the previous year; realized net profit of 2,825 billion yuan, an increase of 22% over the previous year; corresponding to EPS of 0.62 yuan. The company achieved revenue of 1,845 billion yuan in the third quarter, up 26% year on year, up 157% month on month; realized net profit of 1,213 billion yuan, up 32% year on year, up 105% month on month, better than expected. As of the end of September 2017, the company's total assets were 22.075 billion yuan, up 15% from the beginning of the year; net assets were 15.336 billion yuan, up 12% from the beginning of the year. The scale of trusts has risen rapidly, and the proportion of active management continues to rise. Beginning in 2013, the company returned to the main trust business, using the channel business as a starting point, and the scale of trust assets increased dramatically. By the end of the first half of 2017, the company's fiduciary assets reached 228.5 billion, down 3% from the beginning of the year. We believe this is mainly due to the company's focus on active business management and the channel scale continues to shrink. It is estimated that the company's active management scale accounts for more than 65%. Based on the rapid growth in trust scale in recent years and the continuous improvement of active management capabilities, the company's various financial indicators have improved rapidly, and revenue, net profit, and trust return rates have risen from 40-50 in the industry to the top 10 within 10 years. Active management capabilities have been improved, and trust return rates are industry-leading. In the first three quarters of 2017, the company achieved trust compensation revenue of 3,663 billion yuan, an increase of 27% over the previous year, and achieved trust revenue of 13.7 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 66% over the previous quarter. Since 2015, the company has adapted to the development situation of the industry, actively promoted business innovation and transformation, strived to expand and strengthen the scale of active management, and promote the continuous growth of the company's operating profits. Furthermore, the company uses the “real stock and real debt” model, and the trust return rate has gradually stabilized and always maintained the lead in the industry. We believe that as the company actively promotes business transformation and upgrading, the company's trust return rate is expected to exceed 1.8% in 2017 (1.55% in 2016). The inherent business is progressing steadily, and the revenue structure is diversified. The company's inherent strategic business layout takes into account investment returns and promotes financial integration into real companies. In the first three quarters of 2017, the company achieved net interest income of 74 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62%, mainly due to an increase in interest expenses; investment income of 383 million yuan, and an investment income of 550 million yuan in the third quarter, mainly due to a sharp increase in floating profit. Recently, the company plans to further expand its capital. With the continuous expansion of the company's capital, the use of the company's inherent business capital is no longer limited to traditional loan business, and has achieved diversified investment operations in financial products such as loans, securities markets, targeted additional projects, and equity investment in unlisted financial companies. Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 54.49/59.95/645 billion yuan in 2017/18/19E, an increase of 4%/10%/8%; achieve net profit of 36.58/39.66/4.277 billion yuan, an increase of 21%/8%/8%; corresponding to EPS of 0.80/0.87/0.94 yuan. Using a comparable company valuation method, the company was given 2017E21.68x PE, a target price of 17.40 yuan was obtained, and the “buy” rating was maintained. Risk warning: The implementation of financial policy reforms did not meet expectations, and trust payments were rigid.

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