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安信信托(600816)季报点评:信托+固有业务向好 Q3业绩修复

華泰證券 ·  Oct 13, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The three-quarter report's performance recovery benefited from processing fees and commission revenue and the disclosure of the third quarter report to Good Company. The first three quarters achieved operating income of 4.197 billion yuan, YoY 19%; realized net profit to mother of 2,825 billion yuan, YoY 22%, and basic earnings per share of 0.62 yuan, in line with expectations. The company's performance in the second quarter was slightly weaker than expected. The third quarter's results rebounded, achieving net profit of 1,213 billion yuan, QoQ 105%, and YoY 32% in a single quarter. The main reason was the sharp increase in trust business fees and commission income from month-on-month, as well as benefiting from changes in fair value in the stock market that turned losses into profits. Trust business revenue is picking up, and subsequent steady development can be expected. From January to September, the company achieved net revenue of 3.663 billion yuan in handling fees and commissions, or 27% YoY. Looking at a single quarter, net revenue from handling fees and commissions in the first, second, and third quarters was 1,569/787/1,307 billion yuan, respectively. The growth rate reached 66% month-on-month in the third quarter, and trust business revenue picked up. We believe that the main reason is that macroeconomic stabilization supports financing needs. Trust loans benefit as an important component of off-balance sheet financing and promote the volume and price development of the company's trust business. We expect steady development of the company's trust business in the fourth quarter. Market conditions picked up, and the profit from changes in fair value exceeded expectations. Apart from loans and long-term equity shares in financial companies, the company invested more in equity products in the secondary market. Profit and loss from changes in fair value in the second quarter dragged down the balance. In the second half of the year, as the company actively adjusted its investment strategy and market recovery, it achieved fair value change income of about 500 million yuan and investment income of 67 million yuan in July-September. The combination of the two had an obvious effect on the company's three-quarter results. If the market situation remains stable in the fourth quarter, we expect the company's inherent business to continue to benefit, supporting the company's performance. Steadily exploring the financial holding layout, CITIC raised its position in the industry and held 8.55% of the shares of Lushang Bank, 4.27% of Yingkou Bank's shares, 3.85% of Bohai Life Insurance's shares, and 35% of Big Kids Insurance. In the future, the company will strive to strengthen strategic coordination and tactical complementarity in all sectors of the financial industry, effectively enhance comprehensive financial service capabilities, and gradually follow the trend to build a comprehensive financial platform. In addition, the company funded the establishment of China Trust Registration Co., Ltd. with an inherent capital of 150 million yuan. CITIC is positioned as the first unified trust product registration and trading platform in China. The investment shows that the company actively assumes responsibility in the industry, helping to enhance its position in the industry and gain more room for development. The capital increase opens up space to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. In September, the company announced that it intends to raise no more than 6.8 billion yuan in capital through the issuance of preferred shares to supplement the company's capital. The company's net assets will reach about 15.3 billion yuan at the end of the third quarter. After the capital is in place, the company's net assets will reach about 22 billion yuan, and the capital increase can be expected to release performance. Due to a loss of 400 million yuan in fair value earnings in the second quarter, the 17-year performance forecast was adjusted from the previous value of about 4 billion yuan to about 3.6 billion yuan. The company's EPS for 17-19 is expected to be 0.80/0.97/1.12 yuan/share, respectively, corresponding to 16/14/12 times PE. Considering that the company is a leading listed trust, the business structure continues to be optimized, and it has a first-mover advantage in the context of active management transformation in the industry. The company is given a reasonable premium on the basis of comparable company valuations, and the company is given 19-22 times PE in 2017, corresponding to a target price of 15-18 yuan, to maintain an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn, risk of default on trust projects.

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