This report is read as follows:
Q3 performance month-on-month increase is mainly due to proprietary business growth, Guosheng Securities management gradually in place and capital expansion, will promote the release of the performance of the securities sector; "Qudian Inc" listing is imminent, is expected to significantly increase the company's annual investment income.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating, with a target price of 28.75 yuan per share. The company's total operating income / return net profit from January to September 2017 is 15.53 / 337 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, the company's total operating income / return net profit is 15.53 / 337 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, the company's total operating income / return net profit from January to September 2017 is 15.53 / 337 million yuan, compared with the same period last year. Guosheng Securities has consolidated its table since May 2016, resulting in a year-on-year increase in the company's performance from January to September in 17 years, while the month-on-month increase in Q3 performance mainly benefited from the growth of proprietary business. Guosheng Securities management gradually in place and capital expansion, will promote the release of the performance of the securities sector, Qudian Inc listing this year is expected to significantly increase the company's annual performance, maintain 17-19 EPS0.68/0.81/0.99 yuan, maintain the target price of 28.75 yuan per share, corresponding to 17P/E 42X, increase holdings.
Proprietary business will lead to a month-on-month increase in the company's performance, and the availability of management and funds will drive the high growth of the securities business. 1) the company's Q3 proprietary business income is expected to be 204 million yuan, with a month-on-month ratio of + 74%, which is the main driver of the company's Q3 performance compared with the previous quarter. The growth of proprietary business is expected to benefit from the improvement of the stock market in the third quarter. 2) the company's Q3 handling fee and commission net income and interest net income are + 16.4% compared with the previous quarter, respectively. + 25% of the market base turnover in the third quarter, which is expected to have a positive impact on the company's Q3 brokerage business. 3) in the past 16 years, Guosheng Securities has replenished nearly 6 billion yuan in capital by means of fixed increase and corporate bonds, and completed the formation of the core management team, and the availability of management and funds will drive the high growth of securities business.
The listing of "Qudian Inc" is imminent, which is expected to greatly increase the company's annual performance. The company currently holds a 5% stake in consumer finance leader Qudian Inc (the investment cost is 375 million yuan). On September 19, 17, Qudian Inc submitted a quasi-IPO statement to the SEC that 17H1's net profit was 970 million yuan RMB, + 695% compared with the same period last year. Qudian Inc is expected to be valued at more than $6 billion. Qudian Inc plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange on October 18, and its listing will lead to a revaluation of the company's assets and is expected to significantly increase the company's performance, according to IPO Scoop.
Risk hint: Qudian Inc's investment return is lower than expected; the performance growth of securities firms is not up to expectations.