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四方冷链(603339)深度报告:罐式集装箱强势增长 冷冻设备长期看好

東興證券 ·  Oct 19, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Report summary: Downstream recovery, main business recovery, and the company's invisible champion characteristics are obvious. The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of cold chain equipment and special containers. Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the company's business has been repaired at an accelerated pace. Advance accounts have remained at historically high levels for several quarters, and we believe that the growth of the company's quick-freezing equipment and tank container business is on the fast track. The company has the highest profitability and strong cost control capabilities among target companies. As downstream demand picks up and the company's fund-raising project production capacity gradually expands, the company's long-term growth space is expected to open up. The company's performance has been repaired at an accelerated pace, and the company's performance has accelerated since the fourth quarter of 2016. The revenue growth rates in the last three quarters were 18.29%, 33.38%, and 59.73%, respectively. Net profit to mother increased 28.01%, 43.02%, and 33.32% year-on-year, respectively. The company's advance accounts in the first half of 2017 reached 210 million yuan, an increase of 75.98% over the previous year. The company's advance accounts remained at the highest level in history in the first half of the year. We believe that economic recovery in Europe and the US has led to a recovery in the shipping market and the return of quick-freezing equipment, and there is strong certainty about the company's performance growth. The fund-raising project promotes the mitigation of production capacity bottlenecks and helps the company grow for a long time. After the company's fund-raising project was fully put into operation, the company achieved an annual production capacity of 620 quick-freezing equipment, 2,200 refrigerated containers, and 7,300 tank containers. The company also plans to further increase the production capacity of refrigerated containers, other refrigeration equipment, and tank containers through transformation and expansion of production, adding an annual output value of 100 million yuan for other refrigeration equipment, and increasing the annual production capacity of tank containers to 10,300 units. With the growth of the domestic fine chemical processing industry and the outstanding advantages of tank containers in terms of safety and environmental protection, the company's tank container business has huge room for the future. The commissioning of the fund-raising project will also ease the current situation where the company's tank container production capacity is tight. Company profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 957 million yuan, 1,198 million yuan and 1,583 million yuan respectively from 2017 to 2019; net profit to mother of 160 million yuan, 221 million yuan and 266 million yuan respectively; EPS of 0.76 yuan, 1.05 yuan and 1.26 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE of 36.5X, 26.5X and 21.9X, respectively. The company was given a target price of 37.8 yuan for 6 months, with room for an increase of more than 36%. For the first time, coverage was given a “Highly Recommended” rating. Risk warning: 1. Prices of upstream raw materials fluctuate greatly; 2. Global trade and shipping market growth falls short of expectations; 3. Downstream demand in the cold chain equipment industry falls short of expectations.

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