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厚普股份(300471):三季度业绩预计下滑 天然气下游维持高景气度

東興證券 ·  Oct 16, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Event: The company announced its performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2017, and is expected to achieve net profit of 625.636-893.765 million yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year change of -30% to 0%; among them, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 69.31-27.506 million yuan in the third quarter of 2017. The popularity of natural gas for vehicles has increased markedly, the recovery of gas stations is lagging behind, and competition in the short-term market has intensified. Since the fourth quarter of 2016, we have benefited from the widening oil and gas price gap, the economy of natural gas for vehicles has increased dramatically, and LNG heavy truck sales have increased rapidly. In September 2017, LNG heavy truck production reached a record high of 11,682, accounting for 11.6% of heavy trucks (penetration rate). The increase in production and ownership of LNG heavy trucks will drive demand for natural gas for vehicles and lead to the construction of natural gas filling stations. We judge that the inflection point in the construction of gas filling stations has arrived. Due to the lagging demand for gas station construction, short-term market recovery, and limited capacity expansion, industry competition has intensified. On the company side, orders for gas stations have increased year on year since the second quarter, but in order to maintain market share, bid prices have declined, and gross margin has declined. We judge that 2018 will be the first year of rapid climbing in the gas station market after experiencing an inflection point. We expect the company's gas station business to grow significantly in 2018. The confirmation of revenue from energy projects has slowed slightly, and the continued progress of major projects will establish a high level of performance growth next year. According to the company's disclosure from December 2016 to July 2017, the subsidiary Sichuan Hongda signed energy engineering projects totaling about 700 million yuan. Currently, the overall completion of the project is progressing well, but delays in some revenue recognition and project repayment points put pressure on the third quarter results. It is expected that the above projects will enter the peak of revenue recognition from the fourth quarter of 2017. On August 28, 2017, the company announced that it signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Yongchuan District Government of Chongqing for a comprehensive utilization project of shale gas, involving a total investment scale of about 4 billion yuan. The company is focusing on promoting this major project recently. The implementation of the project will greatly enhance the company's performance and promote high growth in the company's performance in 2018. The popularity of natural gas terminal applications has been greatly boosted, and the layout of the clean energy industry chain is full of potential. In August 2017, China's natural gas consumption was 18.1 billion square meters, up 30.4% year on year; from January to August 2017, China's natural gas consumption was 15.4 billion square meters, up 17.8% year on year. The year-on-year growth rate of consumption has increased year by year since 2015, and downstream demand is clearly booming, which will drive the construction of supporting facilities for terminal applications in the industrial chain. The company has a forward-looking layout of the clean energy industry chain and has the capabilities of engineering design, program selection, equipment manufacturing, and equipment integration for energy projects. The company essentially broadens equipment sales channels through energy engineering projects. Due to its ability to supply equipment, the overall profit level of project revenue is relatively good. The 2017 Interim Report Company's energy engineering business had a gross margin of 20.52% and a net profit margin of 9.18%. We expect that in the future, the company will continue to make use of its own industrial resources, equipment integration and other core competitiveness to enhance the volume and profitability of engineering projects, and fully benefit from the increase in the popularity of natural gas terminal applications. Profit forecast and investment rating: The short-term decline in the company's gas station business is in line with our expectations. We kept the company's 2017 profit forecast unchanged. Considering the implementation expectations of major projects in Yongchuan District, we raised the company's 2018-2019 profit forecast. The company expects the company to achieve net profit of 186 million yuan, 352 million yuan and 443 million yuan respectively, and EPS of 0.50 yuan, 0.95 yuan and 1.19 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 34.2X/17.9X/14.2X, maintaining “strong” Recommended” rating. Risk warning: Energy engineering confirmed revenue fell short of expectations, and the recovery in gas station orders fell short of expectations.

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