Events: The company announced its three-quarter report for the first three quarters, with revenue of 4.197 billion, YoY +19.40%; net profit of 2,825 billion, YoY +22.27%, third quarter revenue of 1,845 billion, QoQ +157%; net profit of 1,213 billion, QoQ +105%; 1-3Q ROE 19.92%, EPS 0.62 yuan; securities companies increased their holdings by 1.16% in the third quarter, and the shareholding ratio increased to 3.47%. The trust business structure continues to be optimized, and fee income is returning to a positive trend. Trust business revenue for the first three quarters was $3.663 billion, up 27.1% year on year, while single-quarter fee revenue for the third quarter was $1,307 million, YoY +31.7%, and QoQ +66.0%. 1) Trust scale: The company's trust asset scale has basically remained at a low level of 240 billion dollars over the past three years, but the company has compressed channels and continued to transform active management, and the active business scale has gradually increased to 65%, leading the industry; 2) Underlying assets: the financing channels of housing enterprises have been limited in the past year, and the inclination of the financing seesaw has led to a sharp rise in trust bargaining power. We expect the share of company-related projects to increase; 3) Business structure: The company will continue to vigorously expand the share of equity projects through innovation The financing structure and project design obtain high returns, fully reflecting the stimulation of private sector activity on business efficiency, which in turn drives trust returns to be significantly superior to industry levels. We estimate that the company's active trust rate is 3% or more vs. the industry about 1.5%, and the overall rate is 2% vs. the industry's 0.4%. The inherent business reverses the dilemma. In the first three quarters, the company's inherent business (net interest income+net investment income+fair value variable profit and loss) revenue was 533 million yuan, and the fair value in a single quarter increased by 500 million yuan to set a new record, YoY +15.4%, reversing the loss trend in the first half of the year in one fell swoop. The company has taken Meteor to launch a financing plan and plans to issue preferred shares to raise 6.8 billion dollars. The scale of capital is expanding to help the company develop comprehensively. On September 27, the company's shareholders' meeting passed the issuance of 68 million preferred shares, raising no more than 6.8 billion yuan. Currently, the company's net capital is 11.24 billion yuan. If issued successfully, the net capital will increase to the level of 18 billion yuan, and its capital strength will surpass established industry giants such as Huarun, Zhongrong, and CITIC Trust, directly following the leaders CITIC, Ping An, and Chongqing Trust. In the context of continuous financing, the company's ability to withstand risks continues to improve. On the other hand, it will continue to promote rapid business growth and increase the scale of future performance. It is planned to increase its holdings in China Bank International and increase its diversified financial layout. On September 29, the board of directors approved the proposed subscription of 41.18 million new shares of CNCBI. After completion, the board of directors will hold up to 3.4% of CNCBI's shares. The company currently has a 4.27% stake in Yingkou Bank, a 3.85% stake in Bohai Life Insurance, and a 2% stake in China CITDeng. It is expected that the company will continue to increase its diversified financial layout and multiple sources of performance in the future. The trust industry's volume and price logic continues to improve, benefiting from a regulatory orientation, and carrying the heavy burden of economic transformation on its shoulders. The Financial Work Conference emphasized “financial support for the real economy and promotion of economic deleveraging”. Trust was favored by the main theme of the conference: 1) Being covered in the yellow coat of channels, one family is unique in terms of assets. At the end of 2016, regulation began to rectify channel business, and regulations continued to be issued to restrict the securities supervision channel, and the major reshuffle of the stock channel business pattern on paper: 2Q17 brokerage asset management scale was 18.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.57% over the previous month, the first decline in history. The 2Q17 special account base size was 10.7 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.2% over the previous quarter. It has been declining for 3 consecutive quarters and accelerating contraction; the migration of benefit channels has accelerated. 2Q17 trust assets are 23.14 trillion yuan, +33.9%, +5.33% over the previous year, and have achieved 7 consecutive quarterly growth; 2) Off-balance sheet financing continues to move Trust loans remain high in social finance. Trust loans of $114.3 billion were added in August, YOY +55%. In January-August, the share of new trust loans of $1.55 trillion, YOY +315%, which accounted for the share of new social finance, remained stable above the 11% level, while entrusted loans representing Kiji and brokerage asset management continued to shrink. In August, additional entrusted loans of -8.2 billion yuan and YOY -106% were added. From January to August, the share of new social finance declined to 4.38%; 3) The share of new social finance fell to 4.38%; 3) The heavy burden of the economy was on the shoulders, and the income inflection point was determined. The economy may be under pressure at the end of the year. The market may expect real estate to hedge against the downward pressure on the economy. At the same time, financing channels for housing enterprises are limited, and trust will clearly benefit, and there is no doubt about continued expansion. However, as the most cost-effective underlying asset, the inclination of the financing seesaw has caused trust bargaining power to rise sharply, interest rate increases have increased interest spreads, and the industry's revenue inflection point has been pinned. Investment advice: Maintain the company's prudent recommendation rating, based on: 1) Continued brilliant performance in the first three quarters; 2) the company's re-launch of financing plans to increase capital strength to boost future performance; 3) the fundamental trend in the trust industry continues to improve, and the company's active management and equity investment transformation lead the industry. Maintaining the company's annual profit forecast of 3.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21%, a target price of 15.8 yuan, and room for an increase of 18%, corresponding to 19.5X PE in '17. Risk warning: Overregulation of real estate policies and strict regulations
安信信托(600816)三季报点评:信托、固有业务重新闪耀 再抛优先股融资计划助力未来发展
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