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金贵银业(002716)深度研究:产能密集释放 白银龙头有望实现跨越式发展

廣發證券 ·  Sep 29, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Core view: With intensive release of production capacity, leading silver is expected to achieve leapfrog development as the largest silver producer in China. The company focuses on the entire silver industry chain to create a circular economic development model. At present, a silver-rich lead concentrate mining - lead anode mud - silver (and comprehensive recycling of other valuable metals) - deep processing of silver products - “Internet +” industrial chain system has basically been formed. This year and next two years, production capacity for fixed increase projects has been intensively released, and the superposition industry is clearly recovering. The company's performance is on the fast track, and it is expected to develop by leaps and bounds. Consolidate the main silver business and steadily lay out the entire industry chain to consolidate the main silver business: the high-purity silver clean extraction and expansion project will be completed by the end of the year, and the company's silver production capacity will increase from 600t/a to 2000t/a. Steady layout of the entire industry chain: upstream acquisitions of gold and mining and Junlong mining, and the target self-sufficiency rate of raw materials reached 30% to 50%. The downstream precious silver city project will be completed within the year, expanding into Baiyin deep processing products and Baiyin cultural industries. At the same time, the company established a gold and silver network to expand the Internet business model. The environmental protection policy is unprecedentedly strong. The advantages of the circular economy have clearly benefited from stricter environmental protection, and part of the industry's production capacity has been exhausted. The company puts environmental protection first, and the advantages of the circular economy are obvious. The company's fund-raising projects such as the “50,000 t/a Lead, Ice, and Copper Slag Resources Comprehensive Utilization Project” and the “30,000 t/a Secondary Antimony Resources Comprehensive Utilization Project” can effectively improve the level of comprehensive utilization. “Eat dry and clean” valuable metals (some metals are not priced when purchasing raw materials), and the economic benefits are obvious. The price of metals given a “buy” rating will continue to operate at a high level. Combined with the steady release of the company's production capacity and output, the company's performance is expected to improve steadily. The company's EPS in 17-19 is expected to be 0.57, 0.73, and 1.04 yuan. According to the latest closing price, the corresponding PE is 33.55 times, 26.45 times, and 18.49 times, giving it a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Prices of non-ferrous metals fluctuate; project progress falls short of expectations.

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