Main points of investment:
An industry leader with equal emphasis on endogenous growth and extension. The company has steadily expanded and has become the largest manufacturer of central air conditioning fans in China, with the first share in Asia. Downstream customers include most well-known air conditioning enterprises at home and abroad, and have acquired relevant assets of Jiangsu Furama, Zhejiang Maer and other industries. Fully expand the company's traditional fan and motor business. In 2017, the company completed the acquisition of Tiecheng Information to enter the new energy vehicle charger industry.
The business growth of central air conditioning fans is clear, and construction ventilators and cold chain fans benefit from the rapid growth of downstream industries. The growth rate of domestic sales of central air conditioners lags behind the growth rate of commercial housing sales area for about a year, and will maintain a relatively high growth rate in the future. The sudden rise of multi-online and the introduction of fresh air system will provide a reliable guarantee for the expansion of the central air conditioning market. In addition, construction ventilators and cold chain fans benefit from the rapid growth of rail intersections and cold chains, and future performance growth is expected.
The volume and price of car chargers have gone up, with a compound growth of 34% in the next three years. Vehicle charger is the core component of new energy vehicles. Driven by the lagging construction of charging pile facilities, the continuous improvement of power battery rate performance and the continuous improvement of charging intelligence level, we believe that there is a logic of continuous improvement in the value of vehicle chargers in the future. In the past 16 years, the domestic new energy vehicle charger market is about 1.5 billion yuan, and the power of the charger will gradually increase in the future. The growth of the whole market scale will not be lower than the total growth. By 2020, the market size will reach 4.8 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth of 34%.
The company's car charger has obvious cost advantage and first-mover advantage. Relying on years of accumulation in the field of low-speed electric vehicles, Tiecheng information has shifted to the development direction of new energy passenger vehicles. At present, the vehicle charger industry has shown a relatively high degree of concentration, Tiecheng information occupies a dominant position, the market share ranks second, about 12%. In the case of consolidating the A00 class passenger car and logistics vehicle market that the company has advantages, other new energy passenger car customers are also in a rapid breakthrough.
Maintain the recommended rating. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2017 to 2019 is 0.46,0.57,0.71 respectively, and the corresponding share price PE is 27.39,22.21,18.00 times respectively. The potential of the company's car charger business is still underestimated, maintaining a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint
(1) the price of raw materials has risen more than expected; (2) competition among car chargers has intensified; and (3) policy risks.
