Main points of investment
Company profile
The company's products include automobile stamping dies, automotive stamping parts, etc., which are matched with multinational auto parts suppliers such as Magna, Qihao, Eslinghausen, Bozer and so on. the stamping parts produced by the company's mold products are eventually matched to Porsche, Tesla, Inc., Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Jaguar Land Rover, Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, Honda and other brand models. In addition to the automobile mold manufacturers affiliated to the whole automobile factory, such as first Automobile Model, Dongfeng Automobile Model, BYD Mould, etc., the company, together with Tianqi Model, Chengfei Integration, Zhongtai Mould and Xiangxin Technology, are both independent manufacturers with large domestic production scale.
The automobile manufacturing industry is one of the most important downstream application industries of stamping moulds. According to statistics, more than 90% of the parts in automobile production need to be formed by moulds. Generally, more than 1000 to 1500 sets of stamping dies are needed to produce an ordinary car, which accounts for about 40% of the total output value of the dies needed for vehicle production. In 2014, the market scale of automobile die in China has reached 82.473 billion yuan, of which the market scale of automobile stamping die has reached 32.989 billion yuan. Under the industry trends such as the accelerated frequency of automobile replacement, the transfer of the focus of mold procurement, and the gradual localization of high-end moulds, the market scale of automobile stamping dies will continue to expand, and relevant manufacturers will benefit synchronously.
Profit forecast
The company's operating income from 2017 to 2019 is expected to be 388 million yuan, 458 million yuan and 532 million yuan, up 22.38%, 18.14% and 16.26% over the same period last year; the net profit belonging to the shareholders of the parent company is 75 million yuan, 86 million yuan and 95 million yuan, up 37.20%, 14.71% and 11.26% over the same period last year; the corresponding EPS is 0.95,1.09,1.21 yuan.
Reasonable valuation
The company plans to issue 19.65 million shares at an issue price of 15.09 yuan, corresponding to 17.24 times the pre-IPO PE in 2016. It is estimated that the net funds raised will be 251.7929 million yuan and the issuance expenses will be 44.7256 million yuan. With reference to the valuation level of comparable companies, we think that it is more reasonable to give the company a price-to-earnings ratio of 25-30 times earnings per share in 2017, with a corresponding valuation range of 23.75 yuan to 28.50 yuan.
Risk factors.
Macroeconomic and downstream automobile industry fluctuation risk
The downstream customers of the company's products are concentrated in the automobile field, which is greatly affected by economic policies and market cycle. if the operating condition of the company's customers is adversely affected by the macroeconomic downturn, it may bring adverse effects such as reduced orders, difficult sales, slow repayment and so on.
The risk of being highly dependent on foreign markets
The company's products are mainly export-oriented, and export income accounts for a relatively high proportion. If there is a major change in trade policy in the future or the economic situation of the exporting country deteriorates, it may adversely affect the company's related export business.
The risk of exchange rate fluctuations
The company's export income accounts for a high proportion of revenue, and due to the long production cycle of the company's mold business and the foreign currency pricing of the contracts of the export business, if the exchange rate fluctuates sharply, it may affect the company's operating performance.
Issuer growth risk
If there are adverse changes in the company's industry development prospects, industry status, business model, independent innovation capability, technological level and R & D capability, quality and market prospects of products or services, marketing ability and other factors, it may cause the expected growth of the company to not be realized smoothly.
