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厚普股份(300471)深度报告:赛道好+质地优 戴维斯双击开启新篇章

國海證券 ·  Sep 15, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: Good track: The trend in the natural gas industry continues to improve, and the inflection point logic is fully confirmed. In the “In-depth Report on the Natural Gas Equipment Industry”, we clearly put forward two major logics for the recovery of the industrial chain. One is policy catalysis under pressure on environmental protection; the second is the strengthening of expectations of a decline in gas prices; the current two major logics continue to be confirmed. Looking at the apparent consumption of natural gas, in 2005-2014, China's apparent natural gas consumption CAGR was 14.72%, known by the industry as the “golden decade” of natural gas; in 2015-2016, the industry fell into a slump, with apparent consumption growth rates of 4.15% and 6.52% respectively. In the first half of 2017, the apparent consumption growth rate was 15.20% year on year, returning to an all-time high, fully reflecting the recovery trend of the industry. Excellent quality: The traditional main business has stabilized, and the highlights of the EPC business are outstanding. 1) Gas station equipment business: Affected by increased policies and improved economic efficiency, the monthly production of heavy LNG trucks reached a record high. The natural gas vehicle industry is expected to break out of the slump, and the company's traditional main business, the gas station equipment business, may reach an inflection point. 2) Marine LNG business: The company had the earliest layout in the marine LNG field and established a subsidiary, Hunan Houpu, to specifically manage the marine LNG business; it is expected that the company's pilot LNG ships will begin to be launched within the year, and it is expected that they will start contributing revenue in 2018. 3) EPC business: In the first half of 2017, the company's EPC business achieved revenue of 185 million yuan, exceeding the full year of 2016. On August 30, the company signed a 4 billion Yongchuan district strategic cooperation framework agreement. Currently, the EPC business with Hongda as the core is growing rapidly. Low valuation: Leaders should be given a valuation premium, so Davis double-clicked to start a new chapter. We believe that the natural gas industry chain has highly definitive investment opportunities. Currently, although industry attention continues to increase, overall, the opportunities are still on the left. In this context, the company not only benefits more from the overall recovery of the natural gas industry than other listed companies in terms of business model, but also highlights the advantages and heritage of the company's entire industry chain layout. As the gas trend approaches, the labeling effect brought about by leading attributes is expected to bring valuation premiums to the company; at the same time, as the fundamentals of the natural gas industry continue to recover, the company's performance will fully benefit, and the future is expected to usher in a double click on valuation+performance Davis. Continue to maintain the “buy” rating. Without considering the influence of the marine LNG business and the Yongchuan project, the company's net profit in 2017-19 is estimated to be 1.96, 250, and 325 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 34, 27, and 21 times; considering the influence of the marine LNG business and the Yongchuan project, the company's net profit in 2017-19 is expected to be 1.96, 3.86, and 478 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 34, 17, and 14 times. In the context of natural gas recovery, the company is expected to double hit the market by Davis and continue to maintain its “buy” rating. Risk warning: International oil prices continue to fall; the development of the natural gas industry falls short of expectations; the company's EPC business revenue falls short of expectations; implementation of strategic cooperation agreements falls short of expectations; and the progress of the company's projects falls short of expectations.

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