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康欣新材(600076)公司深度报告:集装箱大周期回暖 新领域拓展可期

中泰證券 ·  Sep 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points The container industry benefits from the rising demand for shipping, container floor manufacturing is picking up, and the company's 2017 Q2 container floor volume and price skyrocketed to a sharp increase in performance: since the end of 2016, container demand and the global shipping market have ushered in signs of recovery, and the Chinese container transport enterprise boom index and confidence index have rebounded in 2016; at the same time, the container transport and leasing industry has entered a period of integration, and new container procurement by leasing companies has become a support point for industry recovery, leading to an increase in container demand. Benefiting from the recovery in container manufacturing and strong demand for bottom plates, the company increased container floor production capacity, boosted bottom plate production and sales, and volume prices rose sharply: in the first half of the year, container bottom plate revenue was 394 million, up 99% year on year. Among them, sales increased by more than 40% year on year, average prices for the first quarter and second quarter increased quarter by quarter, and prices increased by about 10% year on year in the second quarter. Capacity release+rapid expansion of scale driven by epitaxial mergers and acquisitions: the company has 275,000 m3 of targeted structural board production capacity, and the annual production capacity of 200,000 m3 of new container bottom plates has been gradually released, and the production scale has been further expanded; the acquisition of Xinhuachang added 120,000 m3 of floor plate production capacity, further increasing market share. In the future, the release of production capacity for the new container floor project combined with the incremental expansion of Xinhuachang Group's customers will drive the company to continue to expand rapidly. Lay out timber-framed houses to create new profitable growth points: The global timber housing market is about 150 billion yuan, and the market space is vast. Coupled with domestic government policies, it is protected by superimposed domestic government policies, and future development can be expected. The company established Hubei Tianxin to actively lay out the business needs of scenarios such as wooden public buildings, villas, residential houses, and ecological resorts, expand domestic and overseas wooden housing markets, and create new profit growth points. COSB board performance & cost advantages help expand new fields: The company's COSB board has excellent performance, meeting the performance requirements of container floor panels with relatively high technical requirements in terms of strength and rigidity. It also has obvious performance advantages in the application of wooden housing components. At the same time, the cost advantages over logs and OSB panels of the same type are obvious. In the future, Hubei Tianxin is expected to utilize the performance and cost advantages of Kangxin's new materials on COSB panels to rapidly expand domestic and foreign timber structure housing components and design and manufacturing markets. With the commissioning of wooden structure prefabricated production lines, application orders for scenarios such as wooden public buildings, villas, residential houses, and ecological resorts are expected to be implemented quickly, and the expansion of new business is worth looking forward to. Investment suggestion: The company is a leader in the domestic container floor industry. Benefiting from the boom in container manufacturing demand combined with the release of the company's production capacity, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future. The layout of the timber structure housing market has cost advantages to help market expansion. Future development is worth looking forward to. We expect the company's 2017-2019 EPS to be 0.47, 0.58, and 0.77 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 22, 18, and 14 times, respectively. Give a “buy” rating. Risk warning: the container manufacturing boom has declined sharply, the risk of raw material price fluctuations, and the promotion of new products falls short of expectations

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