Main points of investment:
With the introduction of war investment and the change of management, the company is committed to becoming a global resource integrator and value-added service provider of modern agricultural food. In 2014, Pengxin Group became the actual controller of the company. Pengxin Group has strong financial strength and rich experience in overseas mergers and acquisitions. Pengxin Group takes "product diversification, product differentiation, layout globalization, asset securitization" as its development strategy, and its industrial layout involves real estate development, environmental protection technology, resource investment, financial investment, agro-food and other fields. Its listed companies mainly include Guozhong Water Affairs, Pengxin Resources, Dakang Agriculture and so on. GE Junjie, the current chairman of the company, has served as vice president of Bright Food Group and chairman of Shanghai Sugar and Wine Group, and has rich experience in mergers and acquisitions. Since 2010, it has led Guangming Group to use capital to carry out integrated business and accelerate its overseas business expansion. It has handled many overseas mergers and acquisitions of Guangming Group, including the acquisition of DIVA, a wine distributor in Bordeaux in France, Manasson Food Group, an Australian food distribution company, and Miguel Foods of Spain. The injection of Pengxin management will lead the company to speed up the global strategic layout, speed up the merger and acquisition of overseas resources, and improve the company's global industrial layout.
The company has established the two core businesses of "agriculture + food", and gradually built five business platforms of "grain trade, food distribution, dairy products, live pigs and beef cattle". (1) in the grain trade sector, the company is carrying out the equity acquisition of Belagricola, and in the future it will further deepen the merger and acquisition of global agricultural resources and enhance the company's bargaining power in the international grain market. (2) on the food distribution plate, the company will seek international resources to connect with the domestic market, continue to develop to the professional and in-depth service of market segmentation, and strengthen the distribution platform and brand construction. (3) on the dairy business plate, the company currently directly owns 16 farms in New Southwest and hosts 13 farms of Pengxin Group. In the future, the company will speed up product research and development based on the advantages of natural pastures to form a New Zealand brand series with New Zealand genes. (4) on the pig business plate, the company will optimize and upgrade this traditional business plate, respond to the call of large-scale and intensive farming, find suitable breeding areas, and complete the transformation of the traditional business plate. (5) on the beef cattle plate, the company will build a large-scale slaughtering plant with a slaughtering capacity of 500000 heads and a beef cooked food processing plant through the preliminary plan of jointly investing in the Nongdao town agricultural and livestock products processing zone project with Ruili municipal government, so as to increase the added value of the industry and find new profit growth points for the company.
Profit forecast and valuation: because the company has more business branches and there are great differences between businesses, we use the segment valuation method to analyze the valuation of the company. As profits are mainly contributed by grain trade, dairy products and food distribution businesses from 2017 to 2019, beef cattle and live pigs are not considered for the time being. As the bulk grain trade and food distribution business are relatively similar, we will combine the two parts of the valuation; dairy business separate valuation. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2017 to 2019 will be 15.1 billion yuan / 25.1 billion yuan / 44.6 billion yuan, the net profit attributed to the parent company is 79 million yuan / 492 million yuan / 745 million yuan, the EPS is 0.01yuan / 492 million yuan / 745 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is two times that of 350-39-25. Cover for the first time, giving a "neutral" rating.
Risk tips: overseas mergers and acquisitions do not live up to expectations, food safety risks, etc.