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新研股份(300159):向民营军工综合体再出发

光大證券 ·  Sep 4, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Leading private military industry, consolidating the main aerospace component business, and laying out the high-throughput satellite business. Following the completion of the acquisition of Tomorrow's Aerospace in 2015, the company adjusted its business into three major sectors: military (aerospace), agricultural machinery, and investment in 2016. Among them, with the military industry as the core, the military aircraft parts business is growing rapidly, and the fields of civil aircraft components and satellite communications are also constantly expanding. The company's aerospace revenue reached more than 1 billion dollars in 2016, and is gradually emerging as the leading domestic private military industry. The aerospace manufacturing business is growing rapidly. In the military field, leading the military, Qunxiong Company is committed to the development and application of aircraft structural parts weight reduction technology. The main products include three categories of aircraft structural parts, aerospace vehicle structural parts, and engine structural parts. The products have entered all the main models of China's eight major aircraft mainframes, four major engine manufacturers, and the top ten aerospace mainframes. The company is the strongest in the military listing in this field. Benefiting from the boom in China's aerospace power construction, the company's main military business has grown rapidly; at the same time, the company has also continued to expand in the field of civil aircraft, and it is expected that its main aerospace business will continue to maintain a high growth rate in recent years. Lay out the high-throughput broadband satellite business and seize commercial space opportunities as soon as possible. The National Defense Bureau of Science, Technology, and Industry proposed seven major initiatives to build a space power in the “People's Daily” in October 2016, actively promote commercial space development, and encourage the participation of social forces. The company keenly grasped commercial space opportunities, invested in the establishment of Tomorrow Aerospace Satellite Industry Co., Ltd. during the same period to lay out high-throughput broadband satellite business, plan to provide services in 2018, and strive to build a broadband satellite communication system with 12 satellites in orbit over 10 years to create a new growth point with great potential. Profit forecasting and investment suggestions In the context of civil-military integration as a national strategy, some outstanding private enterprises have the potential to further develop their original main business vertically and further utilize their long-standing core technology, rich experience in the military, good civil-military relationships, and superior resources of listed platforms to enter other booming military industry segments through horizontal and vertical expansion, which will have the potential to become private military industrial complexes. We believe that Xinyan is a company with such potential, and the company's long-term growth space is worth reconsidering. EPS is expected to be 0.31, 0.43, and 0.55 yuan respectively in 2017-2019. Considering that the company has obvious advantages in private military enterprises and is continuously expanding the potential for continuous growth in new military fields, it should enjoy a certain leading premium, initial coverage, and an increase in holdings rating. The target price for 12 months is 14 yuan. Risk warning: military orders fluctuated greatly; progress in satellite business fell short of expectations; agricultural machinery business performance continued to decline.

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