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晨曦航空(300581)中报点评:交付周期影响整体业绩 新业务有望造就新增长点

中信建投 ·  Sep 1, 2017 00:00  · Researches

On the 28th of the incident, the company released its semi-annual report. In the first half of 2017, it achieved operating income of 84.67 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91%; realized net profit of 16.56 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.35%. A brief review of the delivery cycle led to a decline in overall performance, while the performance of aero-engine electronics products was impressive, and the company's semi-annual report performance declined. The first half of 2017 achieved revenue of 84.67 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91%. Among them, aviation inertial navigation products achieved revenue of 51.43 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.10%; aero-engine electronic products achieved revenue of 19.06 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.67%; and revenue from professional technical services achieved revenue of 12.5 million yuan, an increase of 86.32% over the previous year. The main reason for the decline in overall performance was that the company's contract delivery was concentrated in the second half of the year. At the same time, the company's accounts receivable increased rapidly with the scale of the business, and accrued bad debt losses increased accordingly. The performance of aero-engine electronics products is impressive. The growth rate of aero-engine electronics products reached 120.67%, mainly because in 2017, the company added many new contracts for aviation electronics products, and it was delivered to customers as scheduled and passed inspection according to the order delivery schedule. At the same time, sales volume of flight control computer products increased in batches, and the sales price of this product was high. It is the leader in the aviation inertial navigation industry, and the leader in the aviation inertial navigation industry with broad future prospects. The company is the only private enterprise in China engaged in the production and sale of aviation inertial guidance products. The products are widely used in helicopters, transport aircraft, drones, etc., and occupy a large market share. Other competitors include national teams such as the 618 Institute of Aerospace Electronics, and the 33rd Institute of Aerospace Science and Industry. Inertial navigation has characteristics such as autonomous navigation, strong anti-interference ability, and traceability of attitude information, etc., and has rigid requirements in the military field. According to our estimates, the total market space brought by the installation of new aircraft in the next 20 years is 167 billion US dollars. As the inflection point of China's new military aircraft installation continues to approach, the aviation inertial guidance industry will simultaneously usher in huge development opportunities, and future development prospects are broad. The new business is expected to create new performance growth points for the company, the largest supplier of helicopter engine parameter collectors in China, and the engine electronic control system is worth looking forward to. The company has successively developed and produced collector products that can be used on double engine and triple engine helicopter platforms, and is a leader in the field of helicopter engine parameter collectors in China. As a replacement product for mechanical hydraulic electronic control systems, the full-authority digital electronic control system currently being vigorously promoted by the company has completed project acceptance in the pre-research stage and achieved professional technical service revenue. It is estimated that in the next 10 years, China's aero-engine electronics market will be 24-3.6 billion US dollars. Once the full-authority digital electronic control system is mass-produced, it will add a major performance growth point to the company in the future. Drone upgrades welcome transformation. As an unmanned target aircraft, the company's first-generation drone has successfully entered the military market, can meet the application needs of military training, exercises, etc., and has achieved cumulative sales revenue of 4.1538 million yuan. On the basis of first-generation drones, the company will combine existing relevant technology to further develop highly intelligent, expandable and multi-functional drone systems, which will greatly expand the company's business field. After the drone business is industrialized and sales revenue is formed, it will become another performance growth point for the company. Profit forecast and investment rating: The prospects for conventional navigation and aviation electronics products are broad, and emerging businesses are expected to create new growth points. The company's habitual navigation and aviation electronics products have broad prospects, and industry prospects are broad. Helicopter parameter collectors, digital electronic control systems, and drones are expected to bring new performance growth points to the company. We are firmly optimistic about the company's future development prospects, and predict that the company's net profit from 2017 to 2019 will be 57 million yuan, 66 million yuan, and 74 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 10%, 20%, and 30% respectively. The corresponding EPS from 17 to 19 was 0.64, 0.77, and 1.00 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE, 59, 49, and 38 times, respectively, maintaining the ratings and giving a rating of increase in holdings.

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