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亚邦股份(603188)点评:环保导致染料供给受限 蒽醌染料价格有望继续上涨

中泰證券 ·  Sep 4, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment companies are domestic leaders in anthraquinone structures, reduced dyes: the company is mainly engaged in the production, operation and service of dyes and dye intermediates, and has been deeply involved in the dye field for many years, forming a complete production and marketing system from procurement of raw materials, production through its own equipment to product sales. The company's main products are anthraquinone structured disperse dyes, reduced dyes, solvent dyes and dye intermediates, and has more than 200 kinds of dye products. The company's anthraquinone disperse dye products have a production capacity of 20,000 tons, anthraquinone disperse dye filter cake production capacity of 14,000 tons, anthraquinone reduced dye filter cake production capacity of 6,000 tons, and a production capacity of 80,000 tons of dye intermediates for anthraquinone reduced dye filter cakes. At present, the production scale, technical level and product quality of the company's anthraquinone structural dyes are at the leading level in China. In the market segment of high-quality anthraquinone structured disperse dyes and reduced dyes, the company has occupied the first place in the market segment in recent years. In particular, in the anthraquinone disperse dye market, the market share of the company exceeds 50%, and the market share of solvent dyes also ranks among the highest in the country. Due to environmental protection, the supply of products has been limited, and the price of anthraquinone has soared: in recent years, with the country's emphasis on environmental protection, the dye and upstream intermediates industry, as a heavily polluting chemical industry, is facing increasing environmental pressure. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have withdrawn from the market one after another due to environmental protection and poor technology standards, and the overall production capacity of the industry has declined. Since August 7, 8 central environmental protection inspection teams have carried out environmental inspections in 8 provinces and cities including Jilin and Zhejiang. The proportion of dye production capacity in Zhejiang Province is as high as 64%. As a result of this environmental inspection, the production capacity of most small dye companies in Zhejiang has been limited to a certain extent. At the same time, the production load of upstream dye intermediates has also dropped drastically, causing the load on most small enterprises that do not have their own dye support to drop. Moreover, unlike in 2014, the current limit on the production capacity of intermediates is not limited to the two varieties of H acid and reduced matter, so the current increase in dye prices is expected to exceed the high at the beginning of 15. Currently, the price of disperse dyes has reached 40,000/ton, an increase of more than 50%. The company's main products are anthraquinone disperse dyes such as No. 60 blue (6000 tons/year), No. 60 red (5500-6000 tons/year), and No. 54 yellow (3000 tons/year). Blue No. 60 rose from 130,000/ton to 150,000/ton on July 29, and Blue No. 60 rose again from 150,000 to 200,000 per ton on August 31, an increase of 53%. With the exception of No. 60 blue, the price of most other anthraquinone-type dyes has now increased by 15%-20%. It is expected that Blue No. 60 and the rest of the anthraquinone dyes will continue to rise further in the future. According to historical experience, after the price of azo type increases, the anthraquinone type will generally follow. It is expected that anthraquinone dyes will continue to rise after September. The supply and demand structure of the industry is good, and price increases are flexible. Active attention is recommended: 1) The company's technical advantages and environmental advantages are obvious. As the impact of environmental protection policies on the heavily polluting chemical industry expands, the supply of anthraquinone dyes and intermediates will be further limited, industry concentration will further increase, and prices are expected to continue to rise. As the leader in the dye and dye intermediates industry, the company will continue to benefit in the future. 2) From the demand side, anthraquinone dyes are mainly used in the middle and high-end markets due to their bright colors and excellent performance. With the improvement of living standards and the pursuit of color by young people, there is a lot of room for improvement in the anthraquinone dye market. We expect the company's EPS for 17-19 to be 1.44, 1.52, and 1.60 yuan respectively, giving a buying rating, and a target price of 30 yuan. Risk warning: prices are falling, environmental production capacity is limited

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