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宜昌交运(002627)公司跟踪报告:道路客运企稳 转型旅游值得期待

海通證券 ·  Sep 6, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: Stabilize the main business and actively seek transformation. Road passenger transportation is one of the company's main businesses. In recent years, due to the impact of high-speed rail, performance has been under pressure. Facing the serious challenges of the road passenger transport industry, the company continues to deepen the business model of “integration of stations, four-level networks, e-commerce services, and value creation”, focusing on the expansion of projects such as the corporate transformation of road passenger lines and resource integration, and is steadily advancing various tasks. In the first half of the year, the company's road passenger transport sector achieved important results in both regional and cross-regional mergers and acquisitions projects. The sector's revenue increased 4.68% year over year, and performance gradually stabilized. The fixed increase helped the company transform, and the large shareholders' high-value subscriptions showed confidence. The fixed growth plan announced by the company plans to raise no more than RMB 1 billion (the company's current total market value is 2,697 billion yuan) for the “Yangtze River Three Gorges Cruise Center Land Level 1 Development Project” and the “Yichang East Railway Station Logistics Center Project (Phase II)”. Among them, the actual controllers, Yichang City Investment, Yichang High Investment, and Yichang State Investment, and Yichang State Investment, each promised to subscribe to the company's non-public stock offering in cash for an amount of 100 million yuan, with a lockdown period of 36 months. We believe this fixed increase will accelerate the upgrading of the company's original tourism products, expand new tourism business, and help the company transform into the tourism industry. At the same time, the increase in high-value subscriptions from actual controllers also shows support for the company's business development, and the company's transformation and upgrading path will be further accelerated. Relying on Yichang's rich tourism resources, there are expectations for resource integration. Yichang is a sub-central city in Hubei Province. It is rich in tourism resources and has 4 national 5A tourist attractions; 11 national 4A scenic spots and various other types of tourism resources; the majority shareholder of the company, the Jiaotou Group, is rich in tourism resources, mainly including: 1) two 4A scenic spots, Xiling Gorge Scenic Area (slightly profitable) and Sanyou Cave (not financially profitable, mainly hampered by historical personnel burden); 2) Rental and operation of some small scenic spots near Xiling Gorge; 3) Investment attractions: Xiling Gorge Campground, basic tourist facilities in Xialaoxi , a mini resort town, and a homestay vacation product similar to Moganshan will be created near Pingshanba; 4) Alpine vacation products near Yichang city are mainly in the form of resorts and are supported by some tourist real estate; the company is the only listing platform under the majority shareholder Communications and Travel Group, and expectations for integration of tourism resources are obvious. Consolidate the core business, actively transform, and look forward to the future. The company's main business is picking up steadily, and the growth rate of tourism products is obvious. According to the semi-annual report just released by the company, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of the year was profit: 3.04 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.55%. The main reason was that the company's travel business in the first half of 2017 exceeded expectations, and the number of visitors to the “Transport* Two Bas and One Gorge” series of tourism products increased by more than 60% compared to the same period last year; the actual payment situation in the current period was better than expected; the company strengthened centralized capital management and reduced financing costs, and the current financial cost increase was lower than expected. Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Regardless of fixed growth projects and possible subsequent asset injections, the company's EPS for 2017-2019 is expected to be 0.58, 0.76, and 1.04 yuan, respectively. Referring to the valuation level of companies in the same industry, we gave the company 44 times PE in 2017, corresponding to the six-month target of 25.5 yuan, maintaining an increase in holdings rating. Risk warning: Tourism asset injection falls short of expectations; the macroeconomic downturn has led to a decline in traditional passenger transport business;

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