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超华科技(002288)深度报告:“PCB+锂电”核心基材提供商 上下游联动深入布局“一体化”

太平洋證券 ·  Sep 4, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Report Summary 1) Driven by “industrial transition+downstream prosperity”, the PCB industry chain is once again welcoming new investment opportunities. Copper foil: equipment shortages, production expansion and conservatism, and the shortage of supply and demand may continue until 19; copper-clad plate: the competitive pattern is relatively balanced, has a smooth price transfer mechanism, so there is no need to worry about cost pressure; PCB: the concentration of domestic capital accelerates the transfer, replicating alternative import paths for industries such as mobile phone modules in the next ten years. 2) The “PCB+lithium battery” core substrate provider ushered in a reversal of high performance growth. Since the second half of 2016, the company's performance indicators have rebounded markedly, and gross margin has shown an “upward trend for two consecutive quarters” for the first time, indicating that profitability has improved; the vertical layout of the industry continues to deepen, and the share of upstream revenue has increased year by year. For the first time, many business revenues have shown a trend of “H1 higher than last year's H2”, indicating that the company is entering a rapid development path. 3) The production capacity of high-precision copper foil is moving towards the “10,000 ton level”, which is expected to benefit both from the scarce supply and demand of raw materials in the PCB and lithium battery markets, and the performance is fully flexible. High-precision copper foil is the inevitable development direction of lithium battery copper foil in the future. The company's “8000 ton high-precision electronic copper foil project (phase I)” was successfully put into operation. The next phase two will provide strong support for the further expansion of copper foil production capacity and build a first-class copper foil supplier in China. 4) Strengthen the deployment of high-frequency CCL and FCCL, further promote the “integration” of the PCB industry chain, and guarantee the future supply of raw materials. Demand for high-frequency boards is increasing, and thin electronic products are driving demand for FPC. The company is increasing the layout of high-frequency copper clad plates and FCCL, while also strengthening the upstream film sector to ensure self-sufficiency in key raw materials in the future. The management has a clear strategic vision, and the successful completion of fundraising will greatly enhance the company's influence in the PCB field. Investment suggestions: We expect the company's net profit in 17-19 to be 1.11/172/233 million yuan and EPS of 0.12/0.18/0.25 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 63/41/30X, respectively, giving a 72X valuation, with a target price of 8.64 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: PCB downstream prosperity falls short of expectations; fund-raising and production expansion projects are progressing less than expected;

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