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哈尔滨电气(01133.HK):估值吸引 维持“收集”

國泰君安國際 ·  Sep 11, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Net profit for the first half of 2017 fell 4.4% year on year, worse than expected. Revenue and gross profit for the first half of 2017 increased by 13.4% and 18.0%, respectively. However, net profit declined 4.4% year over year, mainly due to increased asset impairment losses during the period. Driven by a recovery in gross profit from power generation equipment sold, gross margin during the period increased 0.5 percentage points to 12.6% year on year. Overseas revenue contributed 39.6% of revenue during the period, and we expect overseas markets to drive growth in the future. Overseas markets and state-owned enterprise reforms will be key factors in strengthening the fundamentals of companies. Overseas orders contributed RMB 17.6 billion (up 346.2% year on year) among the new orders signed during the period with a total value of RMB 119.8 billion. We expect revenue from overseas markets to make up for the decline in revenue due to declining demand in the domestic market. Furthermore, we also expect that the state-owned enterprise reform will help the company enhance its profitability and continue to improve the company's fundamentals in the future. In light of the disappointing results for the first half of 2017, we have lowered our earnings forecast. The net profit of RMB 1.25 million recorded in the first half of 2017 fell short of our earlier expectations, so we have readjusted our assumptions and profit forecasts. Our adjusted net profit per share for 2017 to 2019 was RMB0,324, RMB0423, and RMB0451, respectively. We lowered the company's target price to HK$5.00 but maintained a “collection” investment rating. Our new target price is equivalent to 131 times, 10.0 times, 9.4 times the price-earnings ratio from 2017 to 2019, or 04 times the 2017 net market ratio.

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