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智度股份(000676)中报点评:代理业务加速增长 业绩有望超承诺达成

國泰君安 ·  Aug 31, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Guide to this report: The company released its 2017 semi-annual report. The rapid growth in agency business led to revenue growth exceeding expectations and a decline in gross margin. The first half of the year has completed 51% of the promised performance. The fourth quarter is the peak season, and the annual performance is expected to exceed promises. Investment highlights: The company released its 2017 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2017, the company achieved operating income of 2.54 billion yuan, +289.5% year-on-year, net profit of 218 million yuan, +151.8%, corresponding to EPS of 0.23 yuan; in the second quarter, it achieved revenue of 1.35 billion yuan, +127% year-on-year, net profit of 95.41 million yuan, +2.17% year-on-year, and revenue growth exceeding expectations. The company's management business accelerated growth in the first half of the year, leading to an increase in revenue growth, while gross margin declined. Overall performance has completed 51% of the promised performance for the whole year. The fourth quarter is the peak season, and it is a probable event that it exceeds the promised performance throughout the year. We maintain the company's 2017-2019 EPS of 0.51/0.68/0.86 yuan, a “increase in holdings” rating, and a target price of 20.58 yuan. Agency business is growing at an accelerated pace, while revenue growth is accelerating, gross margin is declining. Falcon Network, a subsidiary acquired by the company, grew rapidly in its management business in the first half of the year. Revenue increased 71.8% compared to May-December last year. Due to the relatively low gross margin of the agency business, Falcon Network's gross margin declined. Falcon Network has already fulfilled its promised performance of 31.5% in the first half of the year, but the fourth quarter is a peak season, so it remains to be seen whether the promised performance can be fulfilled. Yifu Information and Spigot also achieved relatively rapid growth. It completed 49.7% and 54.6% of the promised performance in the first half of the year, respectively. Driven by the peak season in the fourth quarter, it is a probable event that it exceeded the promised performance throughout the year. The positive effects of the majority shareholders' support for layout+integration are gradually showing, building the entire global mobile Internet industry chain. The majority shareholders still have Internet assets such as 91 iOS and Fengling Chuangjing outside of their bodies. At the same time, they have extensive experience in overseas mergers and acquisitions, which is expected to help the company's layout in the global mobile Internet field. There is strong synergy between the three companies acquired at the same time. As the layout from traffic to monetization is improved and the positive effects of integration gradually become apparent, it is expected to lead to rapid growth in the company's performance that continues to exceed promises. Catalysts: Advancement of major shareholders' expectations of extracorporeal asset injections; advancement of overseas mergers and acquisitions expectations. Core risk: Good reputation calculation is high, and performance promises are not up to standard.

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