Events:
On August 24, 2017, the company officially released its semi-annual performance report: in 2017, H1 achieved a business income of 322 million yuan, an increase of 20.33% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 38.2921 million yuan, an increase of 30.15% over the same period last year. The high performance growth is mainly due to the high growth of 36.83% of the hemodialysis business.
Comments:
"upstream powder growth + mid-stream channel integration" drives the hemodialysis business H1 to grow by 36.83% in 17 years compared with the same period last year:
At present, the company has gradually realized the whole industry chain layout of "product manufacturing + channel construction + medical service" in the hemodialysis industry. In 2017, H1 hemodialysis business achieved a business income of 222 million yuan, a synchronous increase of 36.83%. The high revenue growth was mainly due to the rapid growth of upstream powder sales and the integration of mid-stream channels. Among them, the upstream manufacturers Duan Hengxin Biology, Changzhou Huayue and Zhixin Hongda contributed a total of 107 million yuan, while the middle channel end, Shanghai, Guizhou and Shenzhen, contributed a total of 109 million yuan.
Affected by the slowdown in industry growth, H1 revenue from guardianship business reached 97.5783 million yuan in 17 years, down 6% from the same period last year:
The company's monitor product line is complete, covering "life information monitoring", "women and children", "ECG diagnosis" and other series, fully meet the needs of the market. In 2017, the company's health monitoring business achieved revenue of 97.5783 million yuan, down 6% from the same period last year. The decline in health monitoring business was mainly affected by the slowdown in the growth rate of the industry. In view of the slowdown in the growth rate of the guardianship industry, on the one hand, the company relocates its products according to low, medium and high levels, reclassifies product dealers, and carries out accurate marketing in the domestic market; on the other hand, it actively develops overseas markets with fast growth such as Africa, actively nurtures new growth points of guardianship business, and is expected to maintain steady growth of 5% and 10% in the future.
Hemodialysis business and monitoring business are neck and neck, and the company's performance is expected to maintain a high growth rate of more than 30% in the future:
In terms of hemodialysis business, on the one hand, the company relies on the national layout of hemodialysis powder to increase the market share of the national powder market; on the other hand, by integrating hemodialysis channel vendors to thicken the company's performance, the hemodialysis business is expected to maintain a high growth of more than 35% in the next three years; in terms of monitoring business, the company is expected to maintain a steady growth of 5% and 10% in line with the industry by readjusting its sales strategy at home and abroad. Under the juxtaposition of hemodialysis and monitoring business, the company's overall performance is expected to maintain a high growth of more than 30% in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation:
Based on the company's existing business situation, we estimate that the company's EPS in 17-19 is 0.62,0.82,1.08 yuan respectively, corresponding to 40,30,23 times PE, continuously maintaining a "highly recommended" rating.
Risk Tips:
The distribution of hemodialysis powder is not up to expectations; the risk of medical malpractice; the risk of policy change; the drag of the monitoring business on the overall performance.