Events:
The company released its 2017 semi-annual report, with revenue of 2.117 billion (+ 62.91%), net profit of 226 million (+ 84.49%), gross profit of 24.23%, financial expense rate of 2.88%, and overall performance in line with expectations. The increase in sales of photovoltaic products and the growth of EPC projects and bike-sharing business are the main factors for the increase in net profit. Optimistic about the high growth of the company's performance and the future layout of solid-state batteries, it is estimated that the EPS in 17-19 will be 0.680.96 gray 1.34 yuan respectively, giving it a "prudent recommendation-A" investment rating.
Comments:
1. The growth rate of H1 return profit in 17 years is strong, and it is expected that the momentum will continue in the second half of the year. The rapid growth of the company's return net profit in the first half of the year is mainly due to the good situation of the company's photovoltaic industry in the first half of this year, with revenue increased by 72.08% over the same period last year, of which the operating income of the photovoltaic power plant EPC business is 1.366 billion (+ 76.03%), and the gross profit margin is 5.85% higher than the same period last year. Revenue from photovoltaic and LED lighting products is 561 million (+ 41.7%); photovoltaic power generation and operation is 189 million (+ 48.08%), and the gross profit margin of this business is as high as 64.14%.
On the other hand, since the end of last year, the bike-sharing industry has shown explosive growth. The company uses its own small photovoltaic energy storage system research and development experience accumulated in LED lighting business and relies on its own technological advantages to provide mobile energy services for the leading enterprises in the industry, bringing some new profits. In addition, the company bought a 100% stake in Guoyuan Power held by Chuyang Photovoltaic in June last year by issuing shares, which was consolidated at the beginning of this year, bringing part of the profit increase. Excluding the impact of consolidation, the company's operating income is 2.067 billion (+ 29.06%) and net profit is 201 million (+ 64.41%), which still maintains a high growth rate.
With: 1) stable development of photovoltaic lighting and photovoltaic power stations; 2) the continuous expansion of the number of shared bicycles and the number of users, the market scale increases significantly, which is good for the company's small photovoltaic energy storage application business; 3) the 100 million WH lithium battery capacity of its subsidiary Jiaweileng is expected to achieve mass production in September this year, and the follow-up capacity release is expected to reach 2.1 billion WH; the growth momentum is expected to continue in the second half of the year.
2. EPC of photovoltaic power station is growing steadily, and the benefits of acquisition and presentation are becoming more and more obvious.
According to the brief situation of the operation of the power industry of China Power Union, the installed capacity of photovoltaic in China reached nearly 34.92GW in July 17, which has exceeded the 34.54GW of the whole year of 16 years, and there is 10.52GW in July alone. According to the guidance of the National Energy Administration, the construction scale of photovoltaic power stations will reach 86.6GW by 2020, with an estimated CAGR of 25.83% in 17-20 years. Photovoltaic business is the company's traditional business, production technology and market share are in the forefront of the country. The company's new projects and scale of construction in the business this year are growing faster than the same period last year, and the company currently holds 364 megawatts of power stations. Among them, the company specially designed for Zhongshan top-grade 548.8KW roof photovoltaic power station daily power generation 3000KWh. For the first time, this project uses a single crystal SUNPOWER module with a module efficiency of 17.4% and a MWT polycrystal photovoltaic cell module with a module efficiency of 16.7%, which leads the market. It is estimated that a total of 120 million kilowatt-hours of electricity will be generated in the next 25 years, which is equivalent to 3833 tons of energy released by coal combustion, which can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 9584 tons, bringing considerable economic and environmental benefits.
3. Pay close attention to the trend of shared bikes, and the mobile energy supply is the largest in the industry.
By the end of 16, the volume of ofo and mobike had reached 1.3 million, and two planned to put 20 million in 17 years. In addition, bike-sharing companies are also growing rapidly. According to the calculation of the matching value of a bicycle equipped with a mobile power supply and mobile power supply, the market demand is huge. Following the trend of bike sharing, the company has become the largest mobile energy provider in the bike sharing industry, providing the world's leading N-type efficient single crystal conversion efficiency of up to 24.2%, shortening charging time. The company is continuing to strengthen cooperation with mobike and other bike-sharing enterprises, this business will bring new profit growth points for the company.
4. put into production of semi-solid power batteries and lay out new energy sources in the future.
Jiaweilong Neng factory, a holding subsidiary, landed in Rugao and vigorously carried out lithium battery research and development and production activities, with an investment of not less than 660 million. The first phase of the lithium battery production line with a capacity of 100 million WH is expected to achieve mass production in September this year, with a maximum capacity release of 2.1 billion WH. The company will mass-produce lithium batteries, some of which will use semi-solid-state battery technology, which can greatly improve the safety and energy density of lithium batteries. We believe that solid-state batteries are the development trend of the next generation of lithium batteries. We are optimistic that the company will make use of semi-solid transition technology and first-mover advantages. At the same time, combined with the graphene-related products that the company has been developing, we have developed products that have advantages in battery capacity, charging time and cycle times, and graphene nano-coating can reduce the cost of manufacturing transparent deformable solar cells. The layout of the integration of upstream and downstream will pave the way for the development of new energy for the company in the future, bringing continuous increment.
5. Profit forecast and rating
With the steady development of photovoltaic lighting and photovoltaic power stations, and the continuous expansion of the number of shared bikes and users, the market scale has increased considerably, which is good for the company's small photovoltaic energy storage application business and lithium battery capacity release, graphene research and development progress, and is optimistic about the company's future growth. We estimate the company's 17-19 net profit of 580 million, 820 million and 1.15 billion, corresponding to EPS of 0.68,0.96,1.34 yuan respectively, maintain the "highly recommended-A" investment rating and continue to recommend.
Risk hint: the benefit of photovoltaic power station, the future usage and delivery of shared bikes are lower than expected.