This report is read as follows:
The sharp decline in the company's performance is mainly dragged down by proprietary performance, and we are optimistic about the outbreak potential of the company's follow-up investment banking business, as well as broad business coordination space based on the comprehensive financial layout and resource advantages of major shareholders.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating and maintain the target price of 28.05 yuan per share. The company's revenue in 2017H was 14.11 million yuan, 26.24% compared with the same period last year, and the performance was slightly lower than expected. By the end of June 2017, the company had a net worth of 18.668 billion, up 1.91% from the beginning of the year. Taking into account the impact of the decline in the average daily trading volume of the two cities, the EPS of the company in 2017-2019 is 0.43 0.58 (before the adjustment, the EPS is 0.71, 0.79, 0.89).
Maintain the target price of 28.05 yuan per share and increase its holdings.
The comprehensive commission rate rose for the first time, and the investment banking business has the potential to grow. ① 's transformation from traditional channels to wealth management continues to intensify. The market share of 17H shares is 0.99%, down 6BP from 1.05% in 16 years, and the comprehensive commission rate is 3.53% upstream for the first time (compared with 0.06% in 2017Q1). The transformation of brokerage business will be further deepened; the growth potential of ② investment banking business is great. During the reporting period, the net income ranking of investment banks rose 8 places to 21 compared with the end of 16. The company's rich follow-up performance of reserve projects will be accelerated. There are 11 IPO projects, 18 refinancing projects, 29 IPO projects in the stage of listing and guidance, ranking 12th in the industry; the growth rate of ③ management slows down, and public funds are the bright spot, and the active management ability will be further strengthened in the future. Affected by the new regulations, the scale of pooled capital management of the company increased by only 2% compared with the end of last year, the contribution of active management further increased to more than 80%, and the size of public funds increased significantly by 38% compared with the end of last year. As the company actively adjusts its investment strategy, there is much room for self-management performance to improve in the second half of the year. Proprietary income fell sharply by more than 80% during the reporting period.
The controlling shareholders are actively leading the war to complete the share reform, which will further integrate high-quality resources at home and abroad.
It is expected that the scale and revenue of collaborative business between the company and major shareholders will reach a record high this year.
Catalyst: the improvement of market activity; the marginal relaxation of regulatory policy in the securities industry.
Risk hint: the sharp fall in the stock market has led to a double decline in brokerage performance and valuation; supervision has been strengthened.