The hemodialysis industry has a high growth rate of nearly 30%, and the treatment penetration rate is only 22.4%. It is a trend for enterprises to extend from upstream production to downstream services.
The five-year compound growth rate of the hemodialysis industry is as high as 29%. At present, the market size is nearly 40 billion, and the treatment penetration rate of ESRD patients is only 22.37%, which is much lower than the 90% in the United States. At the upstream end of the hemodialysis industry, although some domestic hemodialysis instruments are technically close to the level of imported hemodialysis devices, hospitals have low sensitivity to the price of hemodialysis equipment, and domestic devices need to be distributed through terminal service channels to promote the localization of hemodialysis equipment by self-production and self-input. At present, the field of mid-stream hemodialysis circulation is in the period of integration, and the restrictions on the development of downstream hemodialysis services are gradually lifted, providing a good industrial environment for upstream manufacturers to extend to the downstream. The extension of upstream manufacturers to the downstream can further open up the room for enterprise growth (we initially estimate that the upstream and downstream market size of hemodialysis is 10 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan and 45.4 billion yuan respectively). Therefore, we believe that it is the development trend of the industry for upstream manufacturers to extend to downstream services.
Polaroid follows the industry trend to promote the layout of the whole industry chain of hemodialysis, and the sustained high growth of hemodialysis business can be expected:
Paulette constructs the whole industry chain development model of "product manufacturing + channel construction + medical service". At present, the layout of hemodialysis powder liquid, hemodialysis pipeline, hemodialysis machine and hemodialyzer is completed in the upstream end, among which the hemodialysis powder basically completes the national layout, which is helpful to shorten the transportation radius of the product and improve the profit level. The middle end integrates many channels such as Shanghai, Guizhou and Guangdong to enhance the control ability of the terminal channel; downstream completes the acquisition of Qingyuan Kanghua Hospital and Hubei Xiantao Tongtai Hospital, and distributes hemodialysis services with nephropathy hospitals. In view of the rapid growth of nearly 30% of the hemodialysis industry, and considering the business synergy advantage of the layout of the whole hemodialysis industry chain, the hemodialysis business is expected to maintain a growth rate of 30% higher than that of the industry.
The "internal and external repair" of the guardianship business is expected to maintain a steady growth of 5% to 10% in the future:
At present, domestic and foreign monitoring markets have maintained a steady growth trend (foreign growth rate of 6%, domestic growth rate of 16%).
In order to cope with the current situation of the slowdown in the industry, on the one hand, the company relocates its products according to low, medium and high levels, re-subdivides product dealers, and carries out accurate marketing in the domestic market; on the other hand, it actively develops fast-growing markets such as Africa and actively cultivates new growth points of overseas guardianship business. Based on the current industry growth rate and the company's sales situation (65% of exports and 35% of domestic sales, respectively), we expect the guardianship business to maintain steady growth of 5% to 10% in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation:
According to our estimation, the EPS of the company in 17-19 is 0.62,0.82,1.08 yuan respectively, corresponding to 41,31,23 times PE. Considering the growth of performance and the scarcity of the whole industry chain layout of hemodialysis, we maintain the "highly recommended" rating.
Risk Tips:
The distribution of hemodialysis powder is not up to expectations; the risk of medical malpractice; the risk of policy change; the drag of the monitoring business on the overall performance.