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怡球资源(601388)中报点评:受益于供给侧改革 业绩扭亏为盈

興業證券 ·  Aug 16, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment events: The company recently released its 2017 semi-annual report. In the first half of 2017, the company achieved revenue of 2.54 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 81% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 179 million yuan, turning a loss into a profit over the same period last year of 12 million yuan. The comments on this are as follows: The performance turned a loss into a profit, mainly benefiting from supply-side reforms. In the first half of 2017, the company achieved revenue of 2.54 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 81% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 179 million yuan, a loss of 112 million yuan over the same period last year, which turned a loss into a profit; and realized net profit after deduction of 131 million yuan, compared with a loss of 06 billion yuan in the same period last year. The increase in the company's performance is mainly due to macroeconomic recovery combined with supply-side reforms: economic recovery and supply-side reforms have driven the volume and price of the aluminum industry to rise sharply. On August 11, 2017, the settlement price of aluminum metal futures was 1,6085 yuan/ton, up 30% from 12,405 yuan/ton in the same period last year. The corresponding company's gross margin for the first half of the year increased to 10.8%, a marked improvement from the 6.7% gross margin for the same period last year. Stricter environmental enforcement is compounded by industrial policy support, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong. According to statistics from the Recycling Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, and Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM), etc., the focus of international aluminum prices rose steadily in the first half of 2017. At the beginning of the year, the LME March aluminum price quickly reached the 1,800 US dollars/ton integer mark. At the same time, it maintained a strong upward trend, boosted by factors such as favorable macro-news and increased expectations of a global shortage of electrolytic aluminum supply and demand. At the same time, the national “13th Five-Year Plan” requires recycled aluminum to reach at least 30% of total aluminum production. Coupled with recent environmental enforcement efforts that have continued to strengthen the continuous elimination of electrolytic aluminum and scrap aluminum production capacity, the price of aluminum ingots in the company's terminal products is expected to remain at a high level. Investment advice: Maintain an increase in holdings rating. The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is estimated to reach 3.8/47/ 620 million yuan in 17-19. Currently, the company's total market value is 10.5 billion yuan, and the corresponding valuations are 28 times, 23 times, and 17 times. The company's performance has turned a loss into a profit, which is a direct beneficiary of supply-side reforms. It is recommended to focus on it! Risk warning: the price of aluminum ingots is declining, and the import control of scrap metal is being strengthened

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