share_log

银龙股份(603969)简评报告:业绩持续修复 有望受益于环保督查趋严

民生證券 ·  Aug 15, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  1. Event Overview Since the second half of 2016, the company has benefited from infrastructure and industry capacity removal, and performance has recovered strongly. As the company's fund-raising projects are put into operation one after another, we continue to be optimistic about the company's performance growth and long-term development. From the demand side, the demand for prestressed steel products in railways, highways, and water conservancy is still strong. On the supply side, since last year, some manufacturers of prestressed steel products that do not have production capacity, technology, or market advantages have been hampered by successive changes in performance pressure. At the same time, environmental inspections in Hebei and Tianjin have become stricter since this year. We believe that production by some companies that do not meet environmental protection standards is expected to be limited, companies are expected to experience a concentration of orders, and market share will increase further. 2. Analysis and judgment that downstream demand is still strong, and we are optimistic about the company's high growth throughout the year and the strong recovery of the company's prestressed steel products business since the second half of 2016. Influenced by the pace of construction in the north, the first and fourth quarters are low seasons in the traditional sense of prestressed steel wire. Since the second half of last year, the company has shown the characteristics of “the off-season is not weak, the peak season is more prosperous”. We believe that infrastructure investment and industry capacity removal since the second half of last year have boosted the company's performance by far exceeding market expectations. As the company's Hejian Baozelong and Xinjiang projects are put into operation, we are optimistic about the company's high performance growth throughout the year. Environmental inspection pressure is expected to help increase the company's market share. According to the “2017 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas”, “2+26” cities in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan are included in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission channel. Tianjin and Hebei are important bases for the production of prestressed steel products, but most of them have small production capacity, and the emphasis on environmental protection needs to be strengthened. We believe that as environmental inspection pressure increases in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the production capacity of some small manufacturers of heavily polluting prestressed steel products is expected to be limited. The company may benefit from concentrated orders, and the market share is expected to increase further. Currently, there are about 240 domestic manufacturers of prestressed steel products, but most of them have small production capacity, there is a big gap in production technology compared to companies, and the market pattern is scattered. As an industry leader, the company will continue to benefit from industry capacity removal in the future, and industry concentration is expected to increase further. 3. Profit forecast and investment suggestions: We expect the company's EPS from 2017 to 2019 to be 0.49 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.71 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 38 times, 32 times, and 26 times, respectively, maintaining the “highly recommended” rating. 4. Risk warning: infrastructure investment falls short of expectations, railway construction progress falls short of expectations, and raw material prices fluctuate sharply.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment