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安通控股(600179)深度研究:蛟龙“出海” 开启多式联运整合之路

中信建投 ·  Aug 19, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Policy spring winds blow frequently, and multimodal transport has ushered in good opportunities for development and objective demand to reduce costs in circulation links, making multimodal transport a logistics model strongly supported by the country. In 2014, the country issued the “Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Logistics Industry (2014-2020)”, which proposed vigorous development of multimodal transport; in 2015, the Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “Notice on Launching Multimodal Transport Demonstration Projects”, which clearly indicates that China should speed up the construction of multimodal transport. In January 2017, the Ministry of Transport once again issued a document proposing that the volume of intermodal freight will be increased 1.5 times in 2020 compared to 2015; the development of multimodal transport is entering the fast track; Jiaolong has landed, starting in 2013, from domestic shipping to multimodal transport, the company will gradually expand to railways and highways, and actively expand business models such as “water and rail intermodal transport”, “rail intermodal transport”, and “water rail intermodal transport”. Currently, Antong's multimodal transport business covers three modes of transportation: waterway, railway, and road. It has 97 container ships and 89 shipping outlets, covering 147 ports; constructing 213 railway stations, nearly 100 sea-rail intermodal transport lines, and 30 direct railway business lines; 3 highway assembly centers, 13 assembly warehouses, and more than 25,000 cooperative trailers. The company has become one of the integrated multimodal transport enterprises with the best layout in China. The main business grew steadily, and there was broad scope for industry integration. In the first half of 2017, the company's revenue increased 53.1% year on year, and net profit increased 44.8% year on year. Gross margin declined in the first half of the year due to falling freight rates. The company's overall business grew steadily. From 2012 to 2016, the company's revenue grew from 1.59 billion yuan to 3.79 billion yuan, the compound annualized growth rate reached 24.4%, and net profit to mother increased from 67.33 million yuan to 400 million yuan, with an annualized compound growth rate of over 56%. Target industry giants and start a path of growth. From an industry perspective, UPS, one of the world's largest express logistics companies, reduces the cost of credit risk control by integrating logistics, cash flow, and information flow, and provides enterprises with one-stop supply chain management services, including supply chain finance services; FedEx adheres to an epitaxial merger and acquisition strategy, continuously expanding its business scope and market share, and consolidating its competitive advantage. Outreach mergers and acquisitions, international expansion, and integrated warehousing and logistics supply chain management services are also important future development directions for listed companies. The profit forecast predicts that the company's EPS for 2017-2019 will be 0.55 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.20 yuan, respectively. Corresponding to the current share price EPS will be 34 times, 21 times, and 16 times, respectively, covered for the first time, and given an “increase in weight” rating

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