Main points of investment
Investment logic: 1) the absolute leader of domestic ice making, the product positioning is in the middle and high end, and the downstream cold chain logistics and ice and snow projects open the ceiling of ice making machine business; 2) the company rapidly obtains the commanding height of compressor technology through epitaxial development, and its production capacity expands rapidly. become the company's core growth point; 3) deeply involved in the fuel cell field. The stack and air pressure system occupy the commanding height of the core technology of hydrogen fuel cell, and there is a huge space for development in the future.
Ice faucet opens up new space for development. The company is the leader of ice-making equipment, and has formed a stable market share in the middle and high end, downstream, including chemical industry, nuclear power, water conservancy and hydropower, coal mine, edible ice and snow projects, etc., and the products are in the downstream chemical industry, nuclear power, water conservancy and hydropower, coal mine and other fields have the first market share.
Driven by the rapid development of cold chain logistics and ice and snow projects, the company's ice machine business has gained a new growth point, leading compressor technology, and rapid growth in performance. The company has a rich range of compressors and is one of the international high-end equipment manufacturers and system solution suppliers in the field of refrigeration. The company officially started production of its compressor business in 2014, with obvious synergy with other businesses of the company. since then, the company has continued to expand production. Its revenue has increased from 24 million in 2014 to 173 million in 2016, and will maintain a high growth rate in the future. at the same time, as the scale effect gradually appears, the gross profit margin of the compressor industry will also increase steadily.
It is deeply involved in hydrogen fuel cell and has a broad prospect. The company and professional investment institutions jointly invested in a stake of no more than 17.6% in Hydrogenics, a Canadian hydrogen fuel cell manufacturer, and completed delivery on March 28, 2017. Hydrogenics is a world leader in designing, manufacturing and building hydrogen energy systems. We are firmly optimistic about the future development of the hydrogen fuel cell field, the company's core technology in the fuel cell stack and air compression intake system in the field of deep layout, occupy the commanding heights of the industry, accurate card position.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2017 to 2019 is 0.12,0.18,0.26 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 70 times, 47 times and 32 times respectively. As the absolute leader of the ice machine business, the compressor business shows sustained high growth. Combined with the performance growth of the company and the situation of the comparable company, we give the company's original main business 55 times PE in 2017 (corresponding to a compound growth rate of 73.62% PEG for 17-19 years is 0.75), corresponding to a market capitalization of 4.44 billion yuan. At the same time, the fuel cell hydrogen energy business, including the current valuation of the primary market and the stage of the industry, is valued at 2 billion; corresponding to the total market value of 6.44 billion yuan, the corresponding target price of 9.55 yuan, the first coverage, given the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: downstream cold chain logistics and other industries growth is not up to expectations; fuel cell industry growth is not up to expectations; M & A performance is achieved or less than promised.
