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利源精制(002501)中小盘信息更新:业绩逐季攀升 力争年内整车出样

國泰君安 ·  Aug 15, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Introduction to this report: 2017H1 achieved net profit of 313 million dollars, in line with expectations. The net profit growth rate is increasing quarter by quarter, and deep processing is expected to double during the year. Strive to release 2 complete vehicle prototypes within the year. The purchase order intention clearly indicates that sales are worry-free. The target price is 17.1 yuan. Key investment points: maintain the “increase in holdings” rating, with a target price of 17.1 yuan. The company announced 2017 H1 revenue of 1,513 billion yuan (same increase of 29%) and net profit of 313 million yuan, an increase of 13.58% over the same period last year, in line with our expectations. The net profit growth rate is increasing quarter by quarter, and the third and fourth quarters are even more worth looking forward to. All eight new deep processing plants will soon be put into operation, which is expected to double during the year. The company set the tone and strives to release 2 complete vehicle prototypes in December '17. The purchase order intention clearly indicates worry-free sales. Maintaining the forecast of net profit of 696/1.03 billion in 17/18, the corresponding EPS is 0.57/0.85 yuan, and the target price is 17.1 yuan. Performance is increasing quarter by quarter. The third and fourth quarters are even more worth looking forward to. The deep processing business is expected to double during the year. The company's Q1 net profit growth rate was only 7.6% because some workshops at the new plant in Shenyang had already entered depreciation. However, in the second quarter, with the confirmation of revenue from the new factory and strong orders for large car body parts from old manufacturers, the Q2 net profit growth rate rebounded to 16.86%, confirming the previous logic that “the release of production capacity boosts performance, and the second quarter is an inflection point for accelerated profit.” The increase in aluminum prices has caused H1 gross margin to decline compared to last year because the company's pricing model is “floating aluminum price+processing fee”. Looking ahead to Q3, all 8 new workshops for deep processing will be put into production, and strong order demand is the confidence and driving force for expanding production. With product quality and delivery efficiency, the company's supply share to existing customers has further increased. For example, it has quickly stood out from the top six suppliers to become CITIC Deca's largest supplier of wheels in China, and another example is that a certain international notebook brand raised the company's share of case supply to first place. Strive to release 2 complete vehicle prototypes in December 2017. The order intention clearly indicates that sales are worry-free. The rail car production workshop is now fully equipped and is producing parts. It is estimated that it will be able to produce one subway car and one city rail car prototype as scheduled by December. Coupled with the high degree of certainty of procurement intentions for the Shenyang Metro and South Asia/Southeast Asia High Speed Rail, mass production and sales of vehicles are likely events. Catalysts: New forms of rail transit such as cloud rail bring new vehicle body demand; rail transit vehicle orders. Core risk: Production of some production lines at the Shenyang base may be slower than expected.

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