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金鸿能源(000669)公告点评:签订燃气电厂供气合作协议 受益煤改气落地加速业绩有望快速提升

廣發證券 ·  Jul 21, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  A gas power plant cooperation agreement was signed with Datang International. Future gas volume is expected to increase significantly in the future. The company announced that the holding subsidiary Zhangjiakou Xuanhua Jinhong Gas Co., Ltd. (holding 80% of shares) and Datang International Zhangjiakou Power Plant signed a strategic cooperation agreement for a gas cogeneration project. Datang International Zhangjiakou Power Plant is responsible for constructing a gas cogeneration project within the plant area. As the sole gas supplier, Xuanhua Jinhong is responsible for guaranteeing the gas demand of the gas power plant. The maximum gas consumption of the project is 2 billion square meters/year, and the agreed gas price is 1.95 yuan/square meter. In 2016, the company's total gas sales volume was 568 million square meters. In the future, after the gas power plant project is put into operation, it is expected that the company's gas sales scale will be greatly increased and the performance elasticity will increase. The conversion of coal to gas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is unprecedented, and gas distribution and connections are expected to accelerate growth. The management of smog and haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is still the top priority of environmental protection management. Since this year, air pollution prevention plans and subsidy policies have been implemented continuously from the central government to the local authorities. Natural gas substitution has been clearly positioned as one of the key solutions to control scattered coal. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is under the greatest pressure and the heaviest task. According to our estimates, the residential coal-to-gas market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will exceed 20 billion yuan this year. Considering that the company's distribution regions such as Hebei and Shandong are key areas for coal-to-gas conversion, the company's gas sales growth rate is expected to increase in the future. The company's current gas supply is only 20% of its gas supply capacity. Future gas volume growth will drive rapid growth in profit before tax. The company plans to change its name to Jinhong Holdings and strengthen natural gas source development and new energy layout. The company announced that it plans to change the name of the securities from “Jinhong Energy” to “Jinhong Holdings.” This name change positions the company as an energy and environmental protection platform, and the upstream and downstream integration strategy of the industrial chain will be strengthened. Chen Yihe, the actual controller of the company, is the chairman of China National Reserve Energy. The State Reserve Energy mainly engages in upstream, middle and downstream integrated businesses such as oil and natural gas energy exploration, development, storage, transportation, energy and chemicals, etc., and is rich in resources at all ends of the energy industry chain. Benefiting from the increase in demand for “coal-to-gas” in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the “buy” rating, the company's EPS in 17-19 is expected to be 0.69, 0.94, and 1.19 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 26, 19, and 15 times. As a cross-regional private gas operator, the integrated layout of the company's middle and downstream pipeline networks has been improved, benefiting from increased smog control. The growth rate of gas sales in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is expected to increase. The company continues to increase the pace of epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, giving it a “buy” rating. Risk warning that the implementation of the strategic cooperation agreement fell short of expectations; the progress of coal-to-gas implementation fell short of expectations; and the construction progress of gas power plants fell short of expectations;

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