Benefit from high coal prices, the company forecast half a year EPS of 0.4 yuan / share, to achieve a turnaround, in line with expectations. Assuming that the average price of Q5500 in Qingang for the whole year is 600 yuan / ton, the comprehensive price of the company is expected to reach 440 yuan / ton, a big increase of 46% over the same period last year. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.8 yuan per share this year, and the current share price corresponds to less than 8 times the PE, so there is still a lot of room for repair. In addition, the Group strives to build a coal-power integration strategy, the process of national reform is gradually promoted, and there is room for imagination in the injection of assets. Maintain the "highly recommended-A" rating.
The approved production capacity is 10.75 million tons, and the two mines will be closed this year and next year with 2.35 million tons. At present, the company has 7 pairs of production mines, with an approved production capacity of 10.75 million tons and an equity capacity of 9.06 million tons, accounting for 83% of the total. The 1.9 million-ton Micun Mine and the 450000-ton Jiaojiao No.2 Mine will be withdrawn by the end of next year, respectively, which will have little impact on this year's production. After withdrawal, the company's production capacity will drop to 8.4 million tons. In addition, the company is no longer building mines.
Production and sales will decline year by year in the next three years. The company is a pure power coal company, and the raw coal produced is sold directly. The company's coal production and sales have remained at the level of 11 million tons in recent years, and the kaolin mine was closed in 2016. In the next three years, the company's coal production and sales are expected to be 1001, 881,8.4 million tons, an increase of-3.8%,-12.0% and-4.7% over the same period last year.
The price is expected to remain at a high of 440 yuan / ton: coal prices have rebounded in the recent peak season, and the company's comprehensive selling price has reached about 450 yuan / ton. The price of the company's long Association is basically in line with the market price. assuming that the average spot price of Q5500 in Qingang is 600 yuan / ton in the next three years, the company's comprehensive selling price is expected to remain at a high of 440 yuan / ton, up 46% from last year.
The cost has rebounded slightly and is in a controllable range: the per capita salary in 2016 is only 64,000 yuan / year. It is expected that with the recovery of the company's performance, the salary cost of employees will rebound by 10-20 yuan / ton, but the number of employees of the company has gradually declined in recent years, and the burden has been reduced. It is good for cost control. It is estimated that the production cost will be maintained at about 220 yuan / ton in the next three years, and the complete cost will be about 300 yuan / ton.
There is room for imagination in the national reform: Zheng Coal Group is gradually promoting the process of national reform, and the functions of the Social Office are expected to be stripped as soon as possible. In addition, the group strives to build the integration of coal and electricity, which may benefit from the future development of the company. Recently, the company acquired the group's railway assets, releasing the asset injection signal, and there is room for imagination.
Profit forecast and rating: maintain the "highly recommended-A" rating. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2017 to 2019 is 0.8,0.68,0.65 yuan per share respectively. At present, the PE is less than 8 times, the valuation still has a lot of room for repair.
Risk hint: the macro-economic recovery is lower than expected, and the government has excessive reverse regulation on coal prices.
