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宁波东力(002164)深度分析:奇袭供应链管理匡扶主业 年富十年磨一剑初试霜刃

Ningbo Dongli (002164) in-depth analysis: surprise supply chain management Kuangfu main industry to sharpen a sword in the prime of life for the first time

安信證券 ·  Aug 16, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Embrace the dual main business of manufacturing and supply chain management services. Ningbo Dongli acquired a 100% stake in Nianfu supply chain by issuing shares and paying cash, which became a wholly-owned subsidiary of a listed company. As a result, Ningbo Dongli realized the transformation from a single general equipment manufacturer to a dual main business of manufacturing and supply chain management services, while the rich supply chain took advantage of this acquisition to enter the capital market. According to the performance commitment, the number of deducted non-net profits realized by the annual rich supply chain in 2017-2019 is not less than 220 million yuan, 320 million yuan and 400 million yuan respectively, and the person responsible for compensation bears the relevant responsibility for profit compensation.

That arsenic, my honey, turns complexity into simplicity, reducing cost and increasing efficiency. Under the trend that the international division of labor is becoming more and more refined, specialized and large-scale, large enterprises often focus on the core links such as R & D and design, and outsource some or all of the links of supply chain management. as a result, the professional supply chain management service industry has developed rapidly and gradually become a high-end service industry growing synchronously with customer enterprises. Abroad, there are supply chain management giants Ingram International, Hong Kong Li & Fung, and early industry pioneers in China, such as Eaton, Pluto and so on. In recent years, with the steady growth of China's gross domestic product (GDP), the change of business philosophy and the increasing proportion of outsourcing, the prospect of supply chain management service industry is getting broader and broader.

Deep ploughing the electronic information market, Rio Tinto PLC medical equipment territory. Rich supply chain deep ploughing supply chain management industry for nearly a decade, using the "1mm N" marketing model, focusing on electronic information and medical devices, has accumulated a large number of high-quality customer resources, and has a good momentum of development. In terms of electronic information, the company has accumulated the whole industrial chain customers from the core components-modules-ODM/OEM manufacturers-brands on the intelligent terminal, forming a competitive supply chain ecological chain. In the field of medical devices, the company has accumulated well-known upstream suppliers such as Siemens Medical Systems Co., Ltd., Toshiba Medical Systems Co., Ltd., and nearly 30 well-known customers such as Union Hospital and Armed Police General Hospital. From 2014 to 2016, the overall handled goods value of the annual rich supply chain was 13.397 billion yuan, 19.299 billion yuan and 26.159 billion yuan respectively, with a compound growth rate of 39.7%.

M & A boosts profitability, while valuation restructuring reveals upward space. In the process of promoting the restructuring plan, the annual rich supply chain sent a confirmation letter of expected business volume to customers. judging from the reply, the growth rate of the company's electronic information business revenue will exceed 30% in 2017, and the growth rate of medical device business revenue is expected to reach 300%. Considering the size of the order on hand, it is expected that the probability of over-fulfilling the performance commitment is higher. After the completion of this transaction, the total assets, operating income and net profits belonging to the owners of the parent company have increased significantly. This transaction will provide new profit growth points for listed companies, help to enhance the sustainable profitability of listed companies, in line with the interests of all shareholders.

Investment suggestion: we expect annual rich supply chain operating income from 2017 to 2019 to be 27.6 billion, 33.4 billion and 39.1 billion respectively, and net profit to be 240 million, 340 million and 420 million respectively. Based on the 2017 average dynamic PE 26.1x valuation of comparable supply chain management services companies, the reasonable market capitalization is estimated to be 6.29 billion yuan. For the original general equipment manufacturing business, select the historical median PB 2.0x valuation, the reasonable market capitalization is estimated to be 2.21 billion yuan; the two total 8.5 billion yuan. Up to now, Ningbo Dongli has completed the 100% equity transfer procedures and related industrial and commercial registration in the annual rich supply chain of the underlying assets, with a market value of 6.8 billion yuan according to the current share price, which has a certain margin of safety compared with the market value obtained by the segment valuation method. For the first time, it is given a "Buy-A" investment rating with a 6-month target price of 12.15 yuan.

Risk tips: the growth rate of traditional business is declining, new business expansion is not as expected, major asset restructuring is blocked, and so on.

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