Tracking report of Tibet Tianlu (600326) Company: the construction of Sichuan-Tibet Railway is expected to greatly boost the demand for cement in Tibet.

海通證券 · Jul 11, 2017 18:00 · Researches

　　投资要点：

　　事件：近日美国华盛顿邮报报道了《中国开始修建第二条通往西藏的铁路》，称中国第2 条通向西藏的铁路正在建设之中，整个工程可能需要近10 年时间才能完工。

　　点评：

　　川藏铁路投资投资力度大，有望大幅提升西藏水泥需求。川藏铁路全线长度为1838 公里，总投资预算为2500 亿元，其中成都至雅安段已于2014 年开工建设，拉萨至林芝段已于2015 年6 月开工建设，而核心路段（四川康定---西藏林芝、约1700 公里）投资预算约2200 亿元。若按照每1 亿元投资拉动1.5 万吨水泥需求来测算，工期10 年完工，则每年可为西藏带来新增水泥需求约165 万吨（路段中四川、西藏各占约一半）。2016 年西藏水泥产量约618 万吨，预计该项目每年给西藏带来27%的水泥需求增量。

　　西藏凭借充足的基建规划和高额的中央转移支付，水泥需求有望持续保持高增长。从投资规划来看，西藏2017 年固定资产投资规划2000 亿元，同比增长25%，其中公路建设投资规划520 亿元，同比增长约30%；2009-2016年西藏城镇固定资产投资、公路建设固定资产投资、水泥产量CAGR 分别为25%、30%、19%，西藏地区基建等配套设施较为薄弱，区域投资增速有望长期保持较高水平。从投资能力来看，西藏政府收入中超过80%源自中央转移支付及税收返款，相比全国其他区域，基建投资资金更容易得到落实，是全国少有的固定资产投资实际增速长期超过规划增速的区域。2017 年1-5 月西藏地区水泥产量同比增长达29.3%，远高于全国平均水平（约0.7%），需求继续高增长，未来川藏铁路的建设将为区域水泥需求更添一把火。

　　川藏铁路开工将扩大西藏水泥供给缺口，水泥景气有望向上突破。目前西藏地区仅华新水泥和西藏天路有熟料生产线布局，合计7 条熟料生产线，水泥产能约650 万吨（包括西藏天路新线），假设2017 年西藏水泥需求增长30%、至800 万吨，供给端仍有150 万吨缺口。新增产能方面，目前仅有华新水泥规划建设120 万吨产能，预计最早在2018 年底左右投产。未来随着川藏铁路开工，供给缺口将扩大至约300 万吨，目前西藏地区水泥均价约700 元/吨，川藏铁路开工后，区域水泥价格有望再上一个台阶。

　　维持“买入”评级。公司4000t/d 生产线已于2017 年4 月份提前建设完工（原计划2017 年9 月投产），新线投产后公司将新增权益熟料产能超过30%，新产能发挥下，公司盈利有望实现大幅增长。我们预计公司2017-2019 年EPS 约0.58、0.92、1.19 元，给予2017 年PE 20 倍，目标价11.60 元。

　　风险提示。原材料价格超预期上涨，川藏铁路投资低于预期。

Main points of investment:

What happened: recently, the Washington Post reported that "China has begun to build a second railway to Tibet", saying that China's second railway to Tibet is under construction and that the whole project may take nearly 10 years to complete.

Comments:

The large investment in the Sichuan-Tibet Railway is expected to greatly increase the demand for cement in Tibet. The total length of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway is 1838 km, with a total investment budget of 250 billion yuan, of which the section from Chengdu to Ya'an started construction in 2014, and the section from Lhasa to Nyingchi started in June 2015. the investment budget for the core section (Kangding, Sichuan-Linzhi, Tibet, about 1700 km) is about 220 billion yuan. If it is estimated that every 100 million yuan of investment drives 15000 tons of cement demand, if the project is completed in 10 years, it will bring about 1.65 million tons of new cement demand to Tibet every year (Sichuan and Tibet each account for about half of the road sections). Tibet's cement production in 2016 is about 6.18 million tons, and the project is expected to bring 27% increase in cement demand to Tibet every year.

With adequate infrastructure planning and high central transfer payments, the demand for cement in Tibet is expected to maintain high growth. From the perspective of investment planning, fixed asset investment in Tibet is planned to be 200 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 25 percent over the same period last year, of which investment in highway construction is 52 billion yuan, an increase of about 30 percent over the same period last year. The CAGR of fixed assets investment in cities and towns, fixed assets investment in highway construction and cement output in Tibet are 25%, 30% and 19%, respectively. Infrastructure and other supporting facilities in Tibet are relatively weak, and regional investment growth is expected to maintain a high level for a long time. In terms of investment capacity, more than 80% of the Tibetan government's revenue comes from central transfer payments and tax rebates, and infrastructure investment funds are easier to implement than other parts of the country. It is a rare region in the country where the actual growth rate of fixed asset investment has exceeded the planned growth rate for a long time. From January to May 2017, cement production in Tibet increased by 29.3% compared with the same period last year, which is much higher than the national average (about 0.7%). Demand continues to grow at a high level, and the construction of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway will add to the regional cement demand in the future.

The construction of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway will expand the gap in cement supply in Tibet, and the cement boom is expected to make a breakthrough. At present, only Huaxin cement and Tibet Tianlu have clinker production line layout, with a total of 7 clinker production lines, with a cement production capacity of about 6.5 million tons (including the new Tibet Tianlu line). Assuming that the demand for cement in Tibet increases by 30 per cent to 8 million tons in 2017, there is still a shortfall of 1.5 million tons at the supply end. In terms of new production capacity, only Huaxin cement plans to build 1.2 million tons of capacity, which is expected to be put into production around the end of 2018 at the earliest. In the future, with the construction of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, the supply gap will expand to about 3 million tons. At present, the average price of cement in Tibet is about 700 yuan per ton. After the construction of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, the regional cement price is expected to rise to another level.

Maintain a "buy" rating. The company's 4000t/d production line was completed ahead of schedule in April 2017 (originally scheduled to be put into production in September 2017). After the new line is put into production, the company will increase the clinker production capacity by more than 30%. With the new production capacity, the company's profit is expected to increase significantly. We estimate that the company's EPS will be about 0.58,0.92,1.19 yuan in 2017-2019, 20 times the PE in 2017, and the target price will be 11.60 yuan.

Risk hint. The price of raw materials rose higher than expected, and the investment in Sichuan-Tibet railway was lower than expected.

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西藏天路(600326)公司跟踪报告：川藏铁路建设有望大幅拉动西藏水泥需求

Tracking report of Tibet Tianlu (600326) Company: the construction of Sichuan-Tibet Railway is expected to greatly boost the demand for cement in Tibet.

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