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省广股份(002400)中报点评:业绩短期下滑不影响长期增长逻辑

興業證券 ·  Aug 9, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment events: The company released the 2017 semi-annual report; the company plans to participate in the establishment of an investment fund. Comment: The company's performance declined year over year. In 2017, H achieved revenue of 4.47 billion yuan, an increase of 0.91% over the previous year; realized net profit of 190 million yuan, a decrease of 26.6% over the previous year; corresponding to EPS of 0.11 yuan/share. The company expects net profit from January to September 2017 to be 171-299 million yuan, a year-on-year change of -60% to -30%; corresponding to 17Q3 net profit of 19.25 million yuan to 109 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 111%-35%. The year-on-year decline in the company's performance was mainly due to the fact that the performance of its three subsidiaries, Shanghai Yarun, Guangzhou Zhongmao, and Shanghai Kaida, fell short of expectations. 1) Shanghai Yarun's 2017H revenue for the full year of last year was 8.6%, net profit - 28.08 million yuan, resulting in losses; the reason is that Shanghai Yarun acted for TV commercials in second- and third-tier cities, and the overall prosperity of the TV advertising industry declined. 2) Guangzhou Zhongmao's 2017-H revenue was 22% of last year's full year, and net profit was 3% of last year's full year; the reason was that Guangzhou Zhongmao acted as a radio advertisement agent, while the overall prosperity of the radio advertising industry declined. 3) Shanghai Kaida's 2017 revenue for the full year of last year was 19% and net profit was 14,500 yuan; it is estimated that the reason is that Shanghai Kaida is an integrated marketing company, and fluctuations in major customers have a large impact on the company's performance. Maintain the “Overweight” rating. We expect the company's EEPS for 2017/18/19 to be 0.29/0.37/0.41 yuan, respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE for the same period is 23/17/16 times. Although the company's 2017-H performance declined, the company's major customers remained good and could maintain steady growth in the future; the company's establishment of investment funds also helped the company accelerate the deployment of a full marketing ecosystem platform driven by big data. I am optimistic that the company will build a major international integrated marketing company and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; risk of loss of major customers; risk of downturn in industry sentiment.

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