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久其软件(002279)深度报告:精耕行业信息化和数字传播 构筑“久其+”生态

民生證券 ·  Jul 21, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Report summary: The company has been deeply involved in the industry for 20 years and has become a leader in management reporting software 1. As a leading enterprise in traditional reporting business in China, the company has been mainly engaged in the development and promotion of software in the fields of report management software, e-government, group control, big data, and digital marketing for many years, and has long been committed to providing management consulting, information technology products and professional industry solutions for government departments and enterprise groups. The company's customers cover more than 60 central ministries and departments and their branches, and have established long-term cooperative relationships with more than 100 central enterprise groups including China Telecom. 2. We believe that the information technology industry in which the company is located has good customer stickiness, obvious leading advantages, continued steady growth in revenue, huge potential for new business expansion, and new breakthroughs are expected to be achieved in the future. Based on e-government and group control, traditional businesses have grown steadily 1. The e-government field has been intensively cultivated, and important fields have fully blossomed. The company has a presence in various fields such as finance and taxation, statistics, transportation, administration of justice, and people's livelihood. In particular, it has made key breakthroughs in the transportation and justice industry. In 2016, the company's e-government business achieved revenue of 539 million yuan, an increase of 101% over the previous year. 2. The Group's control business has shown considerable growth and will maintain a steady pace in the future. The company closely follows the characteristics of the financial management industry for group enterprises, provides differentiated and customized software products and industry big data solutions for large customers in different industries, and successfully solves the pain points of customer needs. In 2016, the company group achieved a breakthrough in management and control business, with revenue reaching 206 million yuan, an increase of 34.08% over the previous year. 3. We believe that the company's traditional business foundation is solid, operating income and profit have grown steadily, and performance development has maintained a good momentum. Under the trend of government informatization, the company is expected to rapidly increase its market share in the transportation and justice fields. Build a well-known brand for Jiuqi digital communication and add to the field of Internet finance 1. The company enters the field of digital communication and integrates to form the “Jiuqi Digital Communications” brand. In 2016, the company acquired social marketing manufacturer Ruiyi Hengdong and formed “Jiuqi Digital Communications” with Yiqilian Technology and Jiuqi Zhitong, successfully integrating the company's mobile marketing, overseas brand, social marketing, and big data analysis businesses. The company acquired Shanghai Yitong in 2017 to expand B2B2C business for enterprise customers, continue to improve the “Jiuqi+” system, enhance business synergy, and promote continuous and rapid growth in the company's performance. The company's digital communication business achieved revenue of 562 million yuan in 2016, an increase of 91% over the previous year. 2. The company relies on technology and data advantages to enrich the “Jiuqi+” ecosystem. Relying on big data technology and resource advantages, the company actively lays out Internet finance, Internet logistics, Internet+ pension, Internet cloud reporting, enterprise mobile office, and B-side social applications, etc., successfully developed products such as Jiujin Institute and Jiujinbao, and incubated platforms such as Xiaoyi Technology to build a “Jiuqi+” ecosystem with characteristics such as Internet+, cloud services, and value-added information. 3. We believe that the company's extension has entered the field of digital communication, solidified the foundation for continued performance growth, and relied on its original advantages to actively embrace the Internet wave, forge ahead with an entrepreneurial mindset, and enrich the company's data product ecosystem. The Internet technology service platform is worth paying attention to. The investment proposal expects the company's EPS from 2017 to 2019 to be 0.46 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and 0.95 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 25X, 16X, and 12X, respectively. Based on strong government and enterprise customer stickiness and steady growth in traditional business, and huge room for growth in integrated digital communication business, the company was given 35-40 times PE in 2017, with a reasonable valuation of 16.1 to 18.4 yuan for the next 6 months, maintaining the company's “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: government and enterprise informatization is not progressing as expected; technology research and development is not as fast as expected; and business integration is not ideal.

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