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广汇宝信(1293.HK):中期业绩或大幅增长 基本面改善前景可期

光大證券 ·  Jul 18, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Interim results are expected to achieve significant growth Baoxin released a mid-term profit forecast on 7/18. The net profit growth rate is expected to be no less than 500%, and the corresponding 1H17E performance is expected to reach more than RMB 380 million. We judge that the strong growth in mid-term results may be related to factors such as a recovery in the luxury car market (BMW brand sales in China increased 18.4% year over year vs. 7.4% in the same period last year), the gradual release of business integration and collaboration with Guanghui Automobile (600297.SH) in the field of new cars/aftersales/derivative services, mergers and acquisitions, and base effect. Fundamentals have reached an inflection point; BMW's product cycle is strengthening; after-sales business growth prospects can be expected 1) BMW's new 5 Series has been launched, and currently the discount rate for various BMW models is still stable/the new 5 Series is still in a climbing period (4Q17E is expected to return to its original sales share level/undiscounted or remain at 1H18E). We are optimistic about the improvement of the luxury car market environment, the increase in gross margin of sales of the new 5 Series, 2H17E, and 2H17E, sales of new vehicles driven by the 2018E-2020E SUV-X3/3 series Prospects for a steady recovery in gross margin ( The gross margin of new car sales for 2017E/2018E/2019E is estimated to be about 3.8%/4.2%/4.0%, respectively). 2) We believe that the company's after-sales service business may gradually get on the right track, connect with Guanghui resource integration/collection and other systems or further boost its after-sales service scale and gross profit margin (the gross margin of after-sales service for 2017E/2018E/2019E is estimated to be about 47.7%/48.0%/48.3%, respectively). The derivative service business is progressing steadily, and is expected to achieve strong growth in the automobile financial leasing business. Benefiting from the signing of the after-sales leaseback framework agreement with Guanghui Automobile (600297.SH), the size of the company's interest-bearing assets may gradually expand (net interest rate of about 6%-7%). We expect the revenue of the automobile financial leasing business to grow by about 109% in 2016-2019E. In terms of the car commission business, with cooperation and collaboration with Guanghui, the increase in the insurance rebate ratio (the impact of the secondary fee reform is expected to be relatively limited), the expansion of automobile finance penetration rates/the improvement of the used car replacement rate, etc., we expect car commission revenue to grow by about 64% in 2017E. Taken together, we expect the company's derivative services business to grow strongly by around 67% in 2017E. Maintaining the purchase rating, we maintain the 2017-E/2018E/2019E company's fully diluted EPS of RMB 0.32/0.53/0.67; we are still optimistic about Baoxin's fundamental improvements and long-term business collaborative release driven by integration with Guanghui Resources. We maintain our DCF target price of HK$4.72 (corresponding to approximately 12.8x 2017E PE); we maintain our buy rating in view of 15% increase. Core risks suggest that BMW's replacement/new model launch and sales volume fall short of expectations; gross margin of new car sales is under pressure; integration with Guanghui's business falls short of expectations, etc.

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