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九芝堂(000989):销售调整成效渐显 建议坚定持有

中投證券 ·  Nov 12, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The company's stock price fell to a standstill today. After communicating with the company, we believe there is no problem with fundamentals; this is an overreaction from the market. Key investment points: The decline in business performance in the first nine months was due to the impact of active commodity control. After the new general manager came to power, marketing integration has been carried out since April. That is, actively control delivery, reduce and digest channel inventory, and pave the way for marketing reform. Comprehensive and effective integration has been carried out to regulate the market through channel control and prepaid delivery measures, but sales revenue has also inevitably been affected; at present, marketing adjustments have been initially put in place, and it has entered a healthy growth path. Judging from the recent sales situation, it is estimated that in October, the company's product delivery payments have increased 15% year on year, and actual net sales have exceeded 15%. The growth of Liuwei Dihuang concentrate pills and second-tier products has resumed a good momentum, indicating that the integration is showing initial results and will enter a healthy development path in the future. Overall revenue for the fourth quarter is expected to achieve a certain year-on-year growth rate; investment project construction is being implemented at an accelerated pace. The finished product warehouse in the Modern Chinese Medicine Science and Technology Industrial Park began to be put into use in the first half of the year. The formulation workshop was capped, and the pre-treatment base entered the construction phase in July. In addition, the company recently decided to invest 98 million yuan to establish the Lugu Logistics Center, 34 million yuan to implement the new GMP transformation, and 240 million yuan for key dosage form expansion and technology upgrading projects. At that time, the company will better comprehensively improve the company's technical, production capacity, and distribution capabilities; recommended ratings. Although the company's main products are facing fierce competition, the marketing base is already in place. Growth will continue steadily to resume in the future, and performance will gradually be reflected. We adjusted the company's EPS for 2012-14 to 0.56, 0.67, and 0.81 yuan, respectively, up -18%, 20%, and 21% from the previous year, respectively. The current price is about 24 times that of 12PE, which is significantly lower than similar traditional Chinese medicine brands. We recommend considering intervention to maintain the recommended investment ratings. Risk warning: Major product markets are fiercely competitive

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