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康欣新材(600076)深度研究:COSB板龙头成本优势显著 产能释放业绩增厚可期

天風證券 ·  Jul 12, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Basic situation: The company went public on a backdoor basis in 2015. Products include container floors, environmentally friendly boards, green seedlings, and fast-growing poplar seedlings, etc., accounting for 48.04%, 37.76%, and 12.22% of revenue in 2016, respectively. The company's global share of container floors is nearly 15%. The container boom is picking up, and demand is not pessimistic. It is mainly affected by the world economy and trade. More than 95% of the world's containers are manufactured in China. In May of this year, China exported 250,000 containers, an increase of 14.41% over the previous year; in January-May, a total of 1.24 million containers were exported, up 66.94% year on year. Emerging economies are accelerating their development and opening up “high” and “new” growth paths for overseas trade. They are optimistic that sea-rail intermodal transport may accelerate the increase in container demand. We are still waiting for production capacity to be released, and performance growth can be expected. The company's production lines cover wooden floor boards, COSB boards, bamboo and wood composite board production lines, and container floor production lines of Xinhuachang Wood. Among them, the company's COSB production line is the only one in the world. It has the advantages of high quality, low cost, environmental protection, and renewable raw materials. It took 9 months to complete joint research and development with Diefenbach in Germany. The capacity utilization rate reached 85% last year, and it is expected to achieve full production this year. The new 200,000 cubic meter fully automatic container production line began operation in 2016. The company expects to contribute about 50,000 to 150,000 square meters of production capacity in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and fully reach production in 2019. Industry leadership, low cost advantages combined with industrial integration, further increasing market share. Steel, plate, paint, and accessories account for 50%, 15%, 14% and 14% of container costs, respectively. Fluctuations in steel prices may prompt Bodong to reduce overall costs from other components, such as the second-largest plate. The company's cost advantages are obvious: the company independently develops four-yuan environmentally friendly adhesive to replace traditional phenolic resin adhesives, which is low in cost and improves environmental performance; COSB boards can meet the highest standards for container floors, and at the same time, fully automatic production lines reduce labor costs; own woodland supplies seedlings and timber to reduce raw material costs; COSB core panels use fast-growing poplars as raw materials, and use secondary materials to produce environmentally friendly boards under quality conditions. The gross margin of container floor in the first quarter of 2017 and 2016 was 30.87% and 29.04%, significantly higher than that of comparable companies in most industries. With the acquisition of 100% of the shares of Xinhuachang Timber, the market share of the base board is expected to increase from 15% to 20-30%. Eco-friendly adhesives and COSB technology can also accelerate industry penetration through the Xinhuachang channel. Early layout+geographical advantages, woodland resources to build long-term competitiveness. Woodland resources support the supply of raw materials while reducing costs, which is an important reason why profitability is superior to comparable companies. The company has always been committed to developing sublumber such as fast-growing poplar and other second-smaller fuelwood to replace high-quality natural hardwood, and cultivating artificial timber forests such as fast-growing poplars and pine trees. Currently, it has about 650,000 mu of woodland resources. On the one hand, “leave green mountains” to hedge against the risk of future woodland shortages, and on the other hand, sell seedlings to smooth market price fluctuations in the board market. Considering the uncertainty of future policies regarding restrictions on commercial forest use, the company may gradually expand the proportion of outsourcing at this stage. Investment suggestions: The market share of the company's container floor board advantage industries continues to rise, while taking advantage of the trend of consumption upgrades to promote the environmentally friendly board business. Prefabricated construction trends and foreign wooden house promotion experience guarantee future development potential. We are optimistic about the company's continued competitiveness under its low cost advantage. First coverage and purchase ratings were given. It is estimated that the 2017-2018 EPS will be: 0.48 and 0.63 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 19X and 15X respectively. Risk warning: container demand falls short of expectations; prefabricated construction promotion process falls short of expectations.

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