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卡姆丹克太阳能(00712.HK):投资价值分析报告:高效晶片粘滞高端客户

中信證券國際 ·  Nov 15, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Although small in size, high quality customers: As a silicon wafer supplier, Camdank does not have a scale advantage: compared to GW of Poly (03800.HK)'s production capacity of 8GW, the company's 600MW production capacity is not worth mentioning. In the nearly 30GW photovoltaic market last year, the company's production of 0.22GW was also insignificant. However, the company's customer base is very high quality: the world's top ten photovoltaic companies and leading high-efficiency battery companies are mostly company customers. The photovoltaic industry has entered a period of recovery: with the advent of the era of affordable Internet access, we expect the market to be above 40GW in 2013, which also means that the photovoltaic industry is gradually moving towards a balance between supply and demand. “Super monocrystals” shine, pride 2012: The main reason the company received market recognition is due to product quality and high technical barriers. Compared with the market average, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of Comdank's high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon wafers is about 10% higher than the market average. By the end of 2011, all of the company's 600MW production capacity had the ability to produce new products -- “super monocrystalline chips”. According to data feedback from major battery customers, the average conversion efficiency of high-efficiency solar cells equipped with this product reached 23%, far exceeding the current market average of 17-18.5%. This means that batteries of the same size can use the company's products to generate 30% more power. In the photovoltaic industry, which “regards high-efficiency batteries as the darling”, the new products are quite competitive, and it is expected that 2012 will be proud. Steady operation and financial health: Currently, the entire solar industry is close to losing money — “accounts receivable” are high, debt is high, and liquidity is sluggish. In order to prevent risks, Camdank even gave up on a number of business opportunities. Looking at various financial indicators, the company's debt ratio in 2011 was 38%, the lowest among silicon peers; the fluctuation ratio was 2.15, the highest in the industry. Therefore, in an age where bankruptcy is raging, the company's financial risk is relatively low. Risk Factors: Cost control capabilities of new products. Profit forecast, valuation and ratings: The company's revenue from 2012 to 2014 is estimated to be $8.22, 10.73 and $1,191 million respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is RMB 1408, 972 and 97.93 million yuan respectively, EPS is RMB 0.01, 0.08 and 0.09 yuan respectively, and the closing price on November 14, 2012 is HK$1.11, corresponding to PE 73/11/11 times, and P/B is 0.95/0.90/0.85 times respectively. Referring to the industry's 2013 P/B average of 1.06, the company was given a target price of HK$1.24 and an “increase in holdings” rating.

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