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中国高速传动(00658.HK):海外市场收入将驱动增长 “中性”

China High Speed Transmission (00658.HK): Overseas market revenue will drive “neutral” growth

國泰君安國際 ·  Jul 14, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Approximately 17 gigawatts of wind power products are expected to be shipped in 2017. The company estimates shipments of about 17 gigawatts of wind power products in 2017, up 17.2% year-on-year from 14.5 gigawatts delivered in 2016. Overseas sales are expected to continue to rise to a revenue contribution of more than 40% in 2017. We expect the share of overseas revenue to reach 42% in 2017 and continue to rise in the future.

Improving efficiency, deleveraging, and resource consolidation are the company's core strategies. The net debt ratio is expected to continue to fall below 30% in 2017, and non-core assets will continue to be divested to further integrate resources into the development of the wind power products business. We expect wind power products to account for 91% of revenue in 2019.

We maintain our current earnings forecasts. Our forecasts are based on a slowdown in domestic demand for wind power products and a sharp rise in overseas revenue. Our forecast net profit per share from 2017 to 2019 is RMB 0.748, RMB 0.810, and RMB 0.869, respectively.

We slightly raised the company's target price to HK$8.60 but downgraded the investment rating to “neutral”. Our new target price is equivalent to 10.0 times/9.3 times/8.6 times the 2017-2019 price-earnings ratio or 1.0 times/0.9 times/0.9 times the 2017-2019 net price-earnings ratio.

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