The cause of the report: the company's share price rose 17.17% in two days, and the turnover increased from 0.10% to 50 million in the previous period to 250 million yesterday and 510 million today. Here, we will comment on the incident.

The performance declined rapidly in the first half of the year, and the decline is expected to increase from January to September.

Affected by the surge in domestic excess capacity and the decline in demand growth, the company's performance shrank significantly in the first half of the year, with operating income down 15.14% and net profit down 62.53% year-on-year. According to the performance forecast, the company's net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies from January to September was 3100-43.5 million yuan, down 65-75% from the same period last year.

Although the price increase in the peak season is expected, the profit situation is still worrying.

With the gradual advent of the peak consumption season, the demand for transport wrapping paper is expected to be periodically stimulated by Christmas exports and the increase in goods during the Lunar New year. According to public information, leading companies Nine Dragons Paper and Liwen Paper have announced price increases from this month, with a price increase of 50 yuan per ton, and are planning to set a price every two weeks for some time to come. It will help to improve the profitability of manufacturing enterprises with packaging paper as the main business. However, the domestic excess capacity is increasing year by year, and the improvement in profitability will be impacted by the market. It is expected that the future operating situation of Jingxing Paper Industry is still worrying.

Research conclusion

We believe that there are three main reasons for the changes in the company's stock price: 1, the early stock price has fallen too much (it has been broken net), and there is an objective need to overfall and rebound; 2, a large number of shares in the previous period have expired, and the main participating institutions have been tied up. Institutional funds need to be saved; 3, leading enterprises are brewing to raise prices again, and the news is a good opportunity for the main force to meet high shipments.

From a fundamental point of view, the operating condition of the company is difficult to improve in the short term; from a technical point of view, the daily average is suppressed by multiple moving averages, the long-term downward trend of the stock price has not been corrected, and the stock price is currently on the Bollinger line and may fall at any time. At the same time, the trading volume was released but failed to seal the trading limit, indicating that short sellers have occupied a greater advantage. We judge that the rise of the company's stock price may have reached the ceiling, there is the possibility of downward adjustment, it is recommended that the position be reduced.

Risk hint: after the stock price is stimulated by good news, there is a need for adjustment, the support level is 2.25 yuan, and the "underweight" rating is given.