Twelve years of cross-regional transformation, the economy of logistics platform has basically taken shape
After 12 years of transformation and resource integration, the company's main logistics business relying on the land transportation center project has basically taken shape. After the start in 2005, the launch of 56135.com in 2008, the introduction of Tongsheng Group as a strategic investor in 11 years, and the turnaround from loss to profit in 12 years, the company has been at an inflection point in operation.
The company has shifted from business operation to logistics as the core. Taking 2005 as the boundary, the company operated with trade business as the core in the first 8 years, and the fluctuation range of revenue share was [72.4%, 99.1%]. Since 2005, through equity acquisition and liquidation divestiture, the proportion of logistics business income has risen to 86.3% in 2011. The main business has made a magnificent turn. At present, the company's main business includes logistics and industry, accounting for about 96%, while other businesses are real estate, property, BT projects and so on.
Since 2011, the company's profitability and quality have improved. The lack of logistics main business scale and profitability and the high period cost are the main reasons why the company deducted non-net profit in 14 quarters from 2006 to 2010. The company obtains disposal income through liquidation, divestiture and transfer of subsidiaries such as commerce and industry, resulting in net profit better than operating profit; the company's regular performance has improved since 2011, and net profit after deduction has become positive since the second quarter of 2011, and net profit in the third quarter of 2012 has become the second highest since 2006. The company's non-main business disposal has entered the final stage, and the business structure has basically taken shape.
Industry analysis: road transportation has become a deficiency restricting the development of modern logistics. In our country, the transportation cost accounts for more than half of the logistics cost, and road transportation accounts for more than 70% of all kinds of transportation modes. However, at present, the main body of the highway transport market "scattered, small and chaotic" has become the bottleneck of the development of the logistics industry. Whether manufacturing or logistics, small and medium-sized enterprises account for more than 90%. How do many small and medium-sized logistics enterprises and social vehicles serve many small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises with the same small scale and weak competitiveness? The economic model of logistics platform has become an effective way to promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry and logistics industry.
The "Land Freight Trading Center" controlled by the company creates a platform economic service model for land transportation. The Land Jiaotong Center takes the construction of road freight public information platform as the center, creates a modern logistics B2B e-commerce platform, organizes online and offline logistics transactions, and provides full-process tracking management and supporting services before and after logistics transactions. At present, the Land Jiaotong Center makes a profit from three major sectors: online platform (56135.com), inter-provincial special line, and urban distribution.
Thoughts on the future growth source of the main investment logistics industry in the Yangtze River. The company has turned from traditional logistics service to mode innovation, and has found the entrance to grow together with modern logistics. However, how to attract both supply and demand, increase the transaction scale and increase stickiness through value-added services is the core problem that needs to be solved. The center has successively signed strategic cooperation agreements with Zhejiang products and Shanghai bulk Iron and Steel Electronic Trading Center, and is striving to develop into online transactions, freight distribution and value-added services. We expect revenue and performance to grow rapidly as the platform model matures.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2012 to 2014 will be 0.10,0.14,0.18 yuan respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 44.68%, with a target price of 5.59-6.28 yuan for the next six months. The company's unique business model, supported by the Shanghai municipal government, performance into the inflection point, the prospect is worth looking forward to. The "overweight" rating is given for the first time.
Risk tips: (1) fierce competition in online platforms, the risk of downward adjustment in the company's charging standards; (2) how to improve the viscosity of small and medium-sized customers is not a small problem.