Main points of investment
If the major shareholder changes ownership, China Resources Pharmaceutical Group will be elected.
Both Shanghai Pharmaceutical Group and Sinopharm Group are potential competitors.
Jiadobao has achieved great success in the field of fast selling and does not rule out joining the ranks of mergers and acquisitions.
Summary of the report:
Jiuzhitang, ten years of marketing dilemma, waiting to break the situation. Since Hunan Yongjin joined Jiuzhi Hall in 2002, Jiuzhi Hall has not become bigger and stronger after ten years. The market share of the company's products has stagnated, and 2012 of the company has introduced new marketing talents as general manager, but the reform is slow, and there are problems in the running-in between airborne executives and old management. The 2012 annual performance is reduced by 30% Mel 50%, and we believe that only by introducing a new largest shareholder can the company change its current predicament.
China Resources Group is the most likely acquirer, and other potential acquirers have their own advantages. China Resources Group relies on mergers and acquisitions to expand rapidly in the pharmaceutical field, and has a strong marketing network, which can make Quick Xiao graft well with time-honored brands of traditional Chinese medicine. China Resources's sound corporate governance mechanism helps to change Jiuzhitang's ten-year marketing dilemma. From the development strategy and acquisition motivation of China Resources Group, to the development needs of Jiuzhitang itself, China Resources Group is the company most likely to acquire Jiuzhitang. The acquisition direction of Shanghai Pharmaceutical Group has shifted to the pharmaceutical industry. Jiuzhitang has a number of market competitive products, which is the target of its acquisition; Guopharmaceutical Group has continued mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical commercial field for several years, and the acquisition of Jiuzhitang helps to set foot in the field of traditional Chinese medicine. improve the development of its industrial chain; Jiadobao has achieved great success in the field of fast consumption and does not rule out joining the ranks of mergers and acquisitions.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's sales revenue from 2012 to 2014 is expected to be 1.03 billion, 1.24 billion, 1.39 billion respectively; net profit 122 million, 208 million, 256 million, EPS 0.41, 0.70, 0.86 yuan respectively. Corresponding to PE 32x, 19x, 15x. Give an overweight rating.
Risk hint: this report discusses the entry of new major shareholders into Jiuzhitang and brings new products, sales channels or new profit growth points to the company. if the existing major shareholders have no intention to withdraw from this analysis, the premise and conclusion are invalid.