I. Overview of events
On February 20, 07 shares announced the "Progress announcement on the intention to acquire 100% stake in Madagascar Central African Resources Holdings Co., Ltd." as well as its mineral resources pre-survey report (334). Ten niobium-tantalum (uranium) mineralized bodies have been preliminarily delineated in the whole region. Predicted niobium-tantalum-uranium resources: 34.75 million tons of ore, including 76440 tons of Nb2O5, 12508 tons of Ta2O5 and 17,373 tons of U17373 tons, reaching the scale of large deposits.
II. Analysis and judgment
In view of the fact that there are many and good mineralized bodies in the exploration area, and the average depth of the 10 exploration mineralized bodies is only about 17.4 meters, the future reserve increase is that there are many mineralized bodies and good mineralization in the four pre-exploration areas of high probability events, favorable ore-forming conditions and good prospecting prospects. Among them, Ta and Nb are abnormal, with large area, clear concentration zoning, large and regular concentration center area. In view of the fact that the average exploration depth of the 10 mineralized bodies is only 17.4 meters (the shallowest 4 meters, the deepest 45 meters), the future reserve increase is a high probability event.
Tantalum, niobium and uranium pre-survey resources are conservatively estimated that the reasonable market value of the company is about 7.6 billion yuan-the corresponding stock price is 33 yuan. The results of this pre-survey are Nb2O5 76440 tons, Ta2O5 12508 tons and U17373 tons. According to the average selling price since 2009, the mineral value is calculated to be Nb2O5 23 billion yuan (period average price 300000 yuan / t, maximum price 425000 yuan / t, lowest price 175000 yuan), Ta2O5 26.6 billion yuan (period average price 2.125 million yuan / t, highest price 2.5 million yuan / t, lowest price 1.75 million yuan) and U14 billion yuan (period average price 800, 000 yuan / t). The total value of mineral resources is about 63.6 billion yuan, in view of the 334 pre-prospecting, according to the geological professional mineral source probability analysis of about 50%, so the corresponding reasonable value is about 31.8 billion yuan. Using the cash discount method to analyze the reasonable market value of the above mineral resources is about 7.5 billion yuan. Assuming that the mining in the next 15 years, the discount rate is 10%, then the discount coefficient is 0.24, and the reasonable evaluation value before the corresponding is 7.6 billion yuan (i.e. 318-0.24).
Tantalum, niobium and uranium are indispensable varieties for the development of high-end equipment manufacturing in China in the future.
Among them, uranium is a shortage of mineral resources in China's nuclear development, which is of great significance. Tantalum and niobium is an indispensable addition element in aerospace, military equipment, advanced communication base station capacitors, automobile lightweight, marine steel structure manufacturing materials. For example, 22% of tantalum is used in aerospace and military industry, 24% is used in computers and high-end communication base stations, while niobium plays an irreplaceable role in military steel, oil and gas pipe network steel, marine steel structure and automobile lightweight.
14.55 yuan per share to major shareholders and titanium concentrate underwriting to form a margin of performance safety and confidence, 500000 tons EPS is expected to reach 0.71 yuan according to the terms of the underwriting contract, we conservatively estimate the freight volume in the second half of the year at more than 100000 tons and optimistically estimate 30-400000 tons. According to the China report, the net profit of per ton ilmenite is about 320yuan, and it is conservatively estimated that 2012 EPS is about 0.18yuan. If 500000 tons of underwriting is realized in 2013 and the net profit reaches 400 yuan per ton, EPS is expected to reach 0.71 yuan (assuming the fixed increase is completed).
Third, profit forecast and investment suggestions
If the acquisition is completed, the current value of 7.6 billion yuan of minerals and underwriting titanium ore formed 0.71 yuan EPS can effectively support the stock price. Give a "highly recommended" rating.
Fourth, risk hints: 1, the contract is forced to be cancelled; 2, the extension of exploration rights and mining rights cannot be obtained; 3.
